50,000 Russian and North Korean troops prepare to attack Ukrainian forces in Kursk

Ukraine

By Stavros Atlamazoglou

November 13, 2024

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According to U.S. defense officials, Russia has amassed a 50,000-strong Russo-North Korean force in the Kursk Oblast and will soon be launching a large-scale counteroffensive to retake territory captured by Ukraine in August and push it out of the salient.

The Ukrainian forces are in control of hundreds of square kilometers of territory and dozens of settlements within Russia.

South Korean, Western, and Ukrainian intelligence have indicated that Pyongyang has sent approximately 11,000 North Korean troops to Moscow’s aid. Further reporting has suggested that the North Korean troops have received Russian weapon systems and equipment and that they are working closely with Russian units on the ground.

In launching its foray into Russia in August, Ukraine took a strategic risk. Considering its limited numbers of well-trained and equipped troops, as well as its ever-precarious stocks of munitions, Kyiv risked losing good men and resources in an operation with questionable strategic value.

Yet, invading Russia and giving Moscow a taste of its own medicine was an utter surprise to both Moscow and the world. Moreover, the Ukrainian military leadership showcased once more that it has the guts and ambition to win this conflict. And that is very important to how Ukraine “markets” the conflict to the outside world because it keeps the war on the front pages, thus maintaining interest and – crucially – security assistance. But more importantly, the operation drew Russian forces from the contact line inside Ukraine and lessened the intensity of Russian offensive operations giving time for more Western munitions to arrive.

However, the Russian military didn’t draw forces to the extent the Ukrainian leadership would have wanted. Further, using its great numerical and force generation advantage, the Kremlin put more troops on the ground in Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence estimates put the number of Russian troops inside Ukraine at over half a million, and that number continues to grow despite an average of approximately 1,400 losses daily.

Indeed, over the past couple of months, the Russian military has achieved important tactical gains inside Ukraine, including capturing Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar, and Vuhledar; more, such as the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk, are under threat of encirclement and capture. So, Russia managed to contain Ukraine’s foray into Kursk Oblast while also maintaining a steady level of pressure along the contact line, thus essentially defeating the purpose of Ukraine’s invasion.

Whether Ukraine can turn the tables and still make its offensive into Russia a strategic success will depend. On the one hand, the Ukrainian military doesn’t have the room to sacrifice men and weapon systems in a non-vital task; but on the other hand, if Kyiv can manage to tie at least 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops outside Ukraine, while at the same time maintain a solid defense along the contact line, then the foray into Kursk Oblast could be considered successful.

Feature Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un in Vladivostok, Russia April 2019. (Photo by Alexei Nikolsky/Kremlin)