What could “security guarantees” for Ukraine look like?

In the wake of U.S. President Trump’s bilateral summit in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15, followed by a White House meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky and European and NATO leaders on August 18, the framework of a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine came into better focus. The most important aspect of that framework is a security guarantee for Ukraine that would prevent future Russian aggression.

For the first time, it appears that Trump might be open to stationing U.S. troops in Ukraine as a key part of any such security guarantee. That might just offer a salve to Kyiv in the absence of NATO membership and its Article 5 protections against attack. NATO membership for Ukraine is a red line for Putin, and Trump seems currently to be willing to concede to Russia’s demand on that point.

In the August 18 White House meeting, when asked what security guarantees he would want from America, Zelensky said “everything.” He then clarified that he meant, first a Ukrainian army bolstered to withstand Russian aggression, followed by American weapons systems and intelligence support to act as a barrier against a future Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Perhaps surprisingly to most observers, Trump did not rule out American troops stationed in Ukraine. In fact, it seemed he would be open to the idea of placing American troops in the country as part of a security guarantee that falls short of NATO membership. Before the White House meeting, however, Russia’s foreign ministry rejected the idea of European or American troops being deployed in Ukraine, according to Reuters.

Nevertheless, if such a security guarantee framework is implemented, it could be a breakthrough for Trump’s effort to end the war in Ukraine.

Putin must by now be convinced that the American president is serious in his desire to end the war. He might find that the pressure for a deal that gives him ostensibly what he wants (no Ukraine in NATO, and possibly some conquered Ukrainian land) is too hard to resist, especially if such a deal comes with an end to sanctions and a return for Russia to the world scene.

The same could also be true for Zelensky, who obviously does not want to cede any land to Russia, but might be forced to, especially in the case of Crimea which has been occupied by Russia since 2014, and possibly also all of Luhansk and Donetsk. How any potential ceding happens remains to be seen as the Ukrainian constitution requires a referendum to approve any land swaps, and most commentators suggest that Ukrainians would soundly reject ceding any land to Russia. Zelensky would have to decide whether and how hard to push his people to accept ceding land for the promise of peace.

There is the possibility that this thorny issue could be diplomatically fudged by Ukraine (and Europe) by way of accepting a “cease fire line of control” that grants the contested land to Russia in a de facto way, but falls short of conceding a permanent legal and political border resulting from Russian aggression. Such a delicate diplomatic maneuver would be hard to pull off and sell to Europeans and the Ukrainian people, but it might just work.

Overall, Putin’s Russia will surely be the winner in such a peace deal, which raises grave concerns amongst many U.S. and European security officials. Ukraine, meanwhile, would have to grudgingly accept the twin wins of an end to armed hostilities and a fortified U.S./European security guarantee. It is not ideal for Ukraine, Europe, or the United States, but it might just be enough for the countries’ war-weary citizens and leaders.

In a potentially important step forward, Zelensky and Putin are expected to meet by the end of August, according to European leaders who attended the White House meeting. The two presidents have not met since the war began and Putin had previously rejected Zelensky’s invitations to do so.

Feature Image: President Trump received President Zelensky in the White House on August 18 for a multilateral meeting that included European and NATO leader. (Volodymyr Zelensky on X/White House)

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