Over the weekend, a YouTube channel called Project Fear published thermal footage captured over Area 51. The footage shows an as-yet undisclosed stealth aircraft that some have argued may be America’s new stealth fighter, Boeing’s F-47.
However, it’s more likely that we’re looking at a test flight of one of the technology demonstrators that have been flying in secret for about eight years now as a part of a classified X-Plane program that resulted in Boeing getting the F-47 contract.
Both of America’s publicly disclosed 6th-generation fighter efforts (the Air Force’s F-47 and the Navy’s F/A-XX) can trace their roots back to a 2014 study commissioned by Frank Kendall, then the undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics. This study, titled The Dominance Initiative, was carried out by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) over the course of the following “year or so,” as Kendall later put it.
The DARPA study, which has not been revealed to the public, reportedly recommended that the next air superiority fighter program should not produce a single platform, but rather a “family of systems.”
This family would include a high-end new stealth fighter; the Collaborative Combat Aircraft, or drone wingmen, in testing today; and the new AIM-260 beyond visual range air-to-air missile, among others.
As a result of the study, the Pentagon secretly launched the aptly named Next Generation Air Dominance X-plane program, with a budget Kendall described as “about $1 billion.” These costs were divided between DARPA, the Air Force, and the Navy, as both branches needed new fighters: the Air Force was looking for an F-22 Raptor replacement; and the Navy for something to step in for the 4th-generation F/A-18 Super Hornet.
From the companies vying for the X-plane contract, Boeing secretly built and flew its classified X-plane first, in 2018. Nevertheless, this wouldn’t be publicly revealed until 2020, when former Air Force acquisition official Will Roper admitted that the tech demonstrator claimed was flying and had already broken some records (though he didn’t reveal which ones).
It doesn’t appear as though Northrop Grumman opted to build a demonstrator to compete for the contract. It bowed out of the Air Force part of the competition but kept its sights set on the Navy’s F/A-XX.
In 2022, Lockheed Martin joined the club with its own classified technology demonstrator, meant to compete for both the Air Force and Navy contracts. Yet, Lockheed’s entry apparently did not meet the Navy’s criteria and was eliminated from the running for a new Navy fighter.
Ultimately, the contract for the Raptor’s replacement came down to Boeing versus Lockheed Martin, both of whom have secret tech demonstrators already flying; meanwhile, the Navy contract became a fight between Boeing and Northrop Grumman.
In March 2025, Boeing was announced the winner of the Air Force competition. The winner of the Navy competition has not been announced yet.
We know that Boeing has had an air superiority X-Plane flying for about eight years now, while Lockheed’s has been airborne for about half as long.
Related: What we can deduce about the Boeing F-47 and its capabilities so far
Additionally, we must keep in mind the distinction between technology demonstrators, pre-production prototypes, and operational aircraft.
Technology demonstrators don’t have to look like the final aircraft at all – for example, the Raptor program used a modified Boeing 757 to vet the fighter’s avionics suite. They can be more mature than that, but, in general, a tech demonstrator is essentially a rough draft.
On the other hand, a pre-production prototype, which is what Boeing is currently building for the F-47 program, is a jet that is meant to look, fly, and act a lot like the version that will ultimately see service. However, it is still not unusual to see further design revisions as an aircraft makes the leap to production and operational service.
So, the F-47 might look like the aircraft seen in the footage shared by Project Fear – but it also might not be.
Further, because the U.S. has a long list of classified aircraft programs underway on a nearly constant basis, the exotic-looking jet in the footage may not have anything to do with the F-47 at all.
So, for now, all we really know is that Uncle Sam is good at keeping airplane-shaped secrets, and we just got a glimpse of another one.
Feature Image: Video screenshot showing an aircraft over Area 51. Some argue that the aircraft is the F-47. (Project Fear Youtube)