Fighting continues unabated in Ukraine

It has been 232 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Thursday, the war across Ukraine rages hot as both countries are trying to get an advantage over the other.

Back and forth across Ukraine

In the east, the Ukrainian forces are advancing slowly but steadily toward Svatove, an important logistical hub that, if captured by the Ukrainians, would further incapacitate Russian offensive operations in the east and the northern part of the Donbas.

In the north of the Donbas, the Russian forces are setting up defensive lines — including trenches and anti-tank obstacles — in the Luhansk province in anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive there. Meanwhile, in the south of the Donbas, the Russian forces are pushing hard against Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

The situation in the Donbas is fluid. (ISW)

In the south, the Ukrainian forces are advancing slowly toward Kherson while using long-range strikes to target and take out important Russian logistical and military targets.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,200 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 50,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

destroyed Russian BTR amphibious personnel carrier — A destroyed Russian BTR amphibious armored personnel carrier in Ukraine. (Ukrainian 128th Mountain Assault Brigade)

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Thursday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

63,800 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
5,167 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
3,935 vehicles and fuel tanks
2,511 tanks
1,556 artillery pieces
1,182 tactical unmanned aerial systems
268 fighter, attack, and transport jets
357 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
240 attack and transport helicopters
315 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
183 anti-aircraft batteries
136 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
16 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.

Russian artillery during training exercises in 2020. (Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation)

Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.

Then, the concentration of casualties once more shifted back to the Donbas, especially in and around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the two urban centers the Russians managed to capture in July. For most of August, the heaviest fighting took place in the Donbas, where the Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to breach the Ukrainian defenses and capture the Donetsk province. But lately, most of the fighting has shifted to the south where the Ukrainian military is mounting a major counteroffensive to recapture Kherson. It is now there, on the southern front, that the Russian military is suffering the heaviest casualties.

On Thursday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Kramatorsk, which is located in the central Donbas, and in the vicinity of Avdiivka, and close to Kryvyi Rih.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: Members of Ukraine’s 44th Artillery Brigade with FH70 155mm howitzers (Rob Lee via Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)