Did British authorities just foil an Iranian plot against US forces in England?

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British policemen during field training exercise.

Located alongside the rolling green hills and pastures of the Cotswolds, in the countryside of south-central England, and some four miles south of the town of Fairford on the River Coln, is the U.K. air base RAF Fairford. Situated alongside the small village of Whelford, the base opened in January 1944 and was built in preparation for the D-Day landings. In fact, Allied forces launched from there in support of both the landings and Operation Market Garden in the Netherlands.

Years later, during the Cold War, the U.S. Air Force placed some of its forces there as a deterrent against the Soviet Union. U.S. forces also launched from there in the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

The base has also hosted USAF B-52 bombers, U-2 reconnaissance aircraft, and other heavy U.S. bombers like the B-1B and B-2 Stealth bombers. This is primarily due to the base’s long runway and unrestricted load-bearing capacity. U.S. strategic bombers like the B-2 and B-1B have also reportedly launched from RAF Fairford to attack Iran in the latest conflict between that country and the United States.

This last point leads us to a peculiar and newsworthy incident that occurred in late September near the base.

According to initial press reports, a possible plot to attack the base was foiled by a vigilant farmer who made a call to local police after spotting hooded men on the road near the facility. Those police officers stated that on September 27, about 45 minutes after midnight, they responded to that call and located three suspicious vans near Whelford, headed to the vicinity of the Fairford base.

Later, five British nationals were arrested in connection to the call. They were all men in their early 20s wearing balaclavas, and were in possession of some unstated quantity of either gasoline or diesel fuel – as well as some mostly-empty plastic drums. The five men were arrested on suspicion of “explosives offenses” and of “preparing a terrorist act.”

The case was then taken over by U.K, counter-terrorism police, and the five men were later released on strict bail. The BBC then reported on September 29 that one of the balaclava-wearing men themselves might have been the original caller to emergency services.

To murky the waters further, on September 30 additional reporting came out from CBS News stating that the British government believed there were “strong indications that Iran played a part” in the event, although they also stated that no explosives were found on the men, nor did they make any concrete accusations against Iran. 

Related: How American spies helped the UK retake the Falklands

What do we make of all this? Is Iran plotting to attack U.S. forces in Europe, especially those in support of the attacks against it? Or, were some young men plotting an attack on their own, inspired by the war and Iran’s suffering? Could it be that the men were just stealing fuel from local farms, as some local British reporting suggested?

Unfortunately, for now, we really don’t know. In a case like this, the typical unknowns that come with any criminal case, in which authorities initially do not want to release all details publicly, are compounded because there is an intelligence and national security aspect to the investigation. In other words, any corroborating information linking Iran to the plot would likely derive from sensitive sources and methods, and the information itself is also highly sensitive, given that it could lead to additional political complications, not to mention a possible restart of outright war.

So, what is possibly happening here is that these five men were either inspired or directly tasked by Iran to retaliate against U.S. forces in England, and one of them might have had a change of heart and called it in.

It is also possible the one who called it in was already a clandestine source (or penetration) working for British authorities, but then why release the detail that he called it in and why did he call it in to local police and not his handler? It is also possible the young men were just stealing fuel in the area, but that seems less likely and might’ve just been speculation by some local citizen.

Whatever is going on here, it is indicative of the complications that can result for authorities when a plot like this is revealed in its planning stages.

It is definitely a win when a planned attack is thwarted. Yet, in foiling the act, British authorities have simply opened themselves up to a plethora of more questions involving motive, funding, planning, and command and control, among others – and certainly, American authorities will be keenly interested in the answers to those questions.

In other words, welcome to the wild and murky world of intelligence and counter-terrorism.

Feature Image: British policemen during field training exercise with American troops. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Eugene Oliver)

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Frumentarius

Frumentarius is a former Navy SEAL, former CIA officer, and currently a battalion chief in a career fire department in the Midwest.

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