Your tactical update on Ukraine (June 6)

It has been 103 days since the Russian invasion began. On Monday the Ukrainian military persists with its counterattacks in and around Severodonetsk.

Just another day in Severodonetsk

In its latest update on the war, the Institute for the Study of War assessed that the Ukrainian military continues with its successful counterattacks in Severodonetsk. Reports from the ground indicate that the Ukrainian forces have reclaimed more than 30 percent of the city.

The situation on the ground as of June 6. (Ukraine War Map via Twitter)

“Ukrainian counterattacks in Severodonetsk recaptured large parts of the city and forced Russian troops out of the southern suburbs of the city. . .Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and localized but successful counterattacks against Russian positions throughout Ukraine on June 5, including retaking large areas of Severodonetsk—the city in Luhansk Oblast the Kremlin has concentrated the majority of its forces on capturing,” the Institute for the Study of War stated.

Meanwhile, farther north and to the west of Severodonetsk, the Russian military is trying to reach Slovyansk from Izium and Lyman. However, these advances are frustrated by the stiff Ukrainian defense and the fact that the Russian military has focused much of its attention and combat power in and around Severodonetsk.

“Russian forces continued efforts to converge on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman but remain unlikely to make notable advances around Slovyansk due to their continued prioritization of Severodonetsk,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 600 Russian tanks, a statement that has been reaffirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

Same independent verification exists for much of the rest of the Ukrainian claims. Only recently the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

As of Monday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

31,250 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
3,400 armored personnel carriers destroyed
2,395 vehicles and fuel tanks
1,386 tanks
690 artillery pieces
551 tactical unmanned aerial systems
211 fighter, attack, and transport jets
207 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
176 attack and transport helicopters
125 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
96 anti-aircraft batteries
53 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
13 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

Over the past few days, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down significantly despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after over three months of war against the Russian military.

The Ukrainian military is also more focused on withdrawing from unattainable positions around Severodonetsk, which also might be the reason why the Russian casualty rates have slowed down.

For most of the last weeks, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, a key Ukrainian town, and Lyman.

In recent days, the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Zaporizhzhia—where there is one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants—as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive there. On Monday, Ukrainian forces inflicted the heaviest casualties in the vicinity of Severodonetsk, reflecting their heavy fighting in the region.