Your daily tactical update on Ukraine (June 10)

It has been 107 days since the Russian invasion began. On Friday, the battle for Severodonetsk continues as both sides are trying to maintain their hold on the strategic city.

The latest reports from the ground indicate that the Russian forces are in control of most of the city but that they have failed to complete encircle it.

Just another day in Severodonetsk

For yet another day, the fighting in and around Severodonetsk continues. The Russian military is in control of most of the strategic city but has failed to completely capture it. The Ukrainian military is putting up a determined defense, but they are completely outgunned in long rage fires.

Indeed, Ukrainian officials have stated that the Ukrainian forces are at a 15-20 to one disadvantage in artillery and 40 to one disadvantage in artillery munitions. As a result, they can put down less artillery fire and for smaller periods.

The situation on the ground according to the Institute for the Study of War. (ISW)

On the opposite side, the Russian military has completely shifted its tactics from the start of the war and is now employing walls of artillery to soften up targets before the Russian armor and mechanized battalion tactical groups move forward. This tactic is largely denying the advantages, especially in anti-armor elements, that the Ukrainians had been enjoying thus far as, by the time the Russian tanks appear, there is no Ukrainian troop left to counter them.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 600 Russian tanks, a statement that has been reaffirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

Same independent verification exists for much of the rest of the Ukrainian claims. Only recently the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far. Adjusting for the fog of war and other factors would make it hard to verify the exact numbers unless one is on the ground, and the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Friday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

31,900 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
3,450 armored personnel carriers destroyed
2,438 vehicles and fuel tanks
1,409 tanks
712 artillery pieces
572 tactical unmanned aerial systems
212 fighter, attack, and transport jets
222 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
178 attack and transport helicopters
125 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
97 anti-aircraft batteries
54 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
13 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down significantly despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after over three months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.

The Ukrainian military is also more focused on withdrawing from unattainable positions around Severodonetsk, which also might be the reason why the Russian casualty rates have slowed down.

For most of the last weeks, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, a key Ukrainian town, and Lyman.

In recent days, the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive there. On Friday, Ukrainian forces inflicted the heaviest casualties in the vicinity of Severodonetsk, reflecting their heavy fighting in the region.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.