Your daily tactical update on Ukraine (July 12)

It has been 139 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Tuesday, the situation on the ground remained mostly stagnate as a result of the operational pause in place by the Russian high command.

Small changes

The last 24 hours have been some of the quietest since the war began almost five months ago. The two sides are taking advantage of the Russian high command’s decision to initiate a theater-wide operational pause to refit and replenish its forces after the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Small-scale fighting, however, continues, with mostly exchanges of long-range fires and reconnaissance-by-force probes to determine weak spots on the opposite side. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military has been expertly using the newly-acquired High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to strike accurately behind Russian lines. Russian ammunition depots all over occupied Ukraine have been going up in flames in the last few days.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 800 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 4,500 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Only recently the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far.

It is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Tuesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

37,470 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
3,829 armored personnel carriers destroyed
2,699 vehicles and fuel tanks
1,649 tanks
838 artillery pieces
676 tactical unmanned aerial systems
217 fighter, attack, and transport jets
247 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
188 attack and transport helicopters
155 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
109 anti-aircraft batteries
66 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
15 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after over three months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both of these factors are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.

For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.

Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces inflicted the heaviest casualties in the vicinity of Avdiivka and Bakhmut.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: A U.S. Marine Corps High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) fires in Norway. Ukraine has recently received a number of these systems. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Nicholas Guevara)