It has been 155 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Thursday, the Ukrainian military continues to prepare for an attack to retake Kherson, the most important urban center captured by the Russian forces since the war started.
Softening the target
The norm is before any major offensive operation to “soften up” the target so as to make the job of the attacking troops easier. For the third day in about a week, the Ukrainian military has used long-range fires to strike the Antonivskyi bridge that connects Kherson with the rest of Russian-occupied Ukraine to the east.
In the latest night attack, Ukrainian forces, using their new High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), delivered eight missiles on the main Antonivskyi bridge (used for vehicle traffic) and two missiles on the nearby Antonivskyi railway bridge. Footage from the attacks shows that the vehicle bridge is largely out of commission.
Related: The Army is pushing the limits of bridging ops as Ukraine’s fight spotlights river crossings
Meanwhile, in the Donbas, the Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults in the direction of Siversk (north of the Donbas) and Bakhmut (south of the Donbas) with only limited gains on both axes.
Russian casualties
Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.
However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of almost 900 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 4,700 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.
The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.
Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far. Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.
Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.
As of Thursday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:
- 40,230 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
- 3,979 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
- 2,854 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 1,742 tanks
- 894 artillery pieces
- 729 tactical unmanned aerial systems
- 222 fighter, attack, and transport jets
- 258 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
- 190 attack and transport helicopters
- 174 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
- 117 anti-aircraft batteries
- 75 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
- 15 boats and cutters
- four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems
Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after nearly five months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both of these factors are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.
For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.
Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.
Then, the concentration of casualties once more shifted back to the Donbas, and especially in and around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the two urban centers the Russians managed to capture lately.
On Thursday, Ukrainian forces inflicted the heaviest casualties in the direction of Kryvyi Rih.
The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.
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Both sides always fabricate their chosen positive reality. I believe the Ukrainians are routing the Russians. The Russians lie so much now it will cost them their economy, their leader, their way of life. To send men into battle with no explanation is inexcusable,and that lie is the MAJOR reason troops are walking or running away from the actions. After a certain point, lies turn on the liars, and things become much worse than it would have had the TRUTH been told in the first place. I can’t wait to see the political repercussions when the Russian people realize what their great leader Putin has done. There will be hell to pay.
Stav,
thanks for a snapshot of the ground truth as of today.
geo sends
When it comes to war, if western news companies told me the sky was blue, I’d have to check for myself. Having served as a infantry senior non-com in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan has helped me to spot many completely fabricated stories. More recent conflicts get worse and worse. How could you miss that when a Russian missile struck Kiev during a U.N. envoy’s visited, there was noise, flames and smoke, but no one ran? The toddler pulled from rubble in Aleppo, was loaded onto a pristine ambulance in a city under siege for a year? The bridge still stands. Either MLRS missles don’t pack much of a punch or as the Russians claimed, most were intercepted. Remember Putin’s goals? They were a lie because Intel and the news said so. Except low and behold, he’s done exactly as he said he would. It’s a scam. A multi trillion dollar scam. I’ve been to Ukraine. It’s the most corrupt country I’ve ever been to, with the exception of non Taliban Afghanistan. The Spanish didn’t sink the Maine. The Gulf of Tonkin incident never happened. Saddam was never a threat to the United States, and we’re being taken for billions of our tax dollars.
Fantastic remarks, Señor Aguilar.
geo sends
Thanks for saying the TRUTH!
So, in this article I didn’t see a destroyed bridge, I saw a damaged bridge. Pictures from other sources show an overhead view and the hole in the bridge is relatively small.
That calls into question all the of the other claims made in this article.
providing escorts in the black sea is a sure loser even if Turkey alows more ships from the MEd to the BSea. RUS has massive firepower available to strike ships via land, sea, air. And all much closer than NATO assets. NATO would need to send aircraft from carriers in the Med and heavy bombers w/cruise missiles probably from US via UK. Good time to go nuclear for RUS too.
Why does g the US blockade the only two ports in Russia. at St. Petersburg and Vladivostok??
The US blockading two Russian ports would be a clear act of war which we are trying to avoid. I think a better strategy would be for NATO, including US, naval vessels to escort merchant ships carrying grain from Ukraine through the Black Sea. The ball would then be in the Russians’ court as to whether or not they want to commit an act of war.
US or NATO naval vessels escorting Ukrainian cargo ships is a sure fire way to draw the US and NATO into the war. The US and NATO are already very close to being pulled into the war by supplying Ukraine with an almost limitless amounts of military aid (as they should) but there’s a limit to what the US and NATO can do without crossing a line that might trigger a wider war. The Russians have been reluctant to threaten NATO as they are up to their eyeballs in trouble just fighting the Ukrainians but we could provoke them into “We’ve got nothing to lose” mindset by actively escorting Ukrainian vessels.
Stephen Kennedy,
You are 100% correct. And Russian interference with grain exports is totally indefensible. If they want to start anything with NATO, they will bitterly regret it – if they survive.