Ukrainian noose around Kherson tightens up

It has been 156 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Friday, the situation on the battlefield remains fairly similar. The Ukrainian military continues to set up the conditions for an attack against Kherson while the Russian forces try, but fail, to achieve any real gains in the Donbas.

The push continues

The Ukrainian forces continue to push toward Kherson, attacking Russian positions on the outskirts of the captured Ukrainian city. Using long-range fires, most notably the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems), the Ukrainian forces are targeting the Russian lines of communication and supply that lead to Kherson. Besides making the resupply of Russian forces in Kherson that much harder — for example, the main vehicular bridge that leads to Kherson looks like Swiss cheese after several nights of missile attacks — the targeted shelling has a psychological aspect on the Russian garrison in Kherson, making it feel increasingly trapped.

The situation in the direction of Kherson. (ISW)

Moving to the Donbas, the Russian military has failed to achieve any significant gains, only capturing some marginal ground in the direction of Bakhmut.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of almost 900 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 4,700 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far. Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

Ukrainian soldier attack a Russian tank during the siege of Mariupol, March 2022. (Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs)

As of Friday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

40,500 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
3,987 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
2,870 vehicles and fuel tanks
1,749 tanks
900 artillery pieces
731 tactical unmanned aerial systems
222 fighter, attack, and transport jets
258 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
190 attack and transport helicopters
174 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
117 anti-aircraft batteries
77 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
15 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after nearly five months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both of these factors are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.

Ukrainian artillery (General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)

For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.

Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.

Then, the concentration of casualties once more shifted back to the Donbas, and especially in and around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the two urban centers the Russians managed to capture lately.

On Friday, Ukrainian forces inflicted the heaviest casualties in the direction of Kryvyi Rih.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: Ukrainian soldiers training with Maliuk and AKS-74 rifles in May 2022. (General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)