Ukrainian and Russian presidents visit their allies as the battlefield remains unchanged

It has been 302 days since the Russian invasion began. On Thursday, the battlefield situation has remained relatively the same while both sides are trying to garner outside support for their war efforts.

The war goes on

In the Donbas, the Russian military continues with its offensive against the towns of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. But the Ukrainian defenders are holding fast and even counterattacking and reclaiming lost territory.

In the south, nothing has changed. The Russian forces tried to capture several small islands in the Dnipro River delta with amphibious operations but failed.

In the east, the Ukrainian forces continue with their counteroffensive toward Kreminna.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky concluded his visit to the U.S. and got another package of military aid worth $1.85 billion, which includes a battery of MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Belarus and met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in another attempt to draw Russia’s client state into the war directly. Belarus has been facilitating the war by allowing Russian troops to operate from its territory.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,500 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Ukrainian artillery during a training exercise in 2016. (Ministry of Defense of Ukraine)

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Thursday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

100,400 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
5,981 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
4,615 vehicles and fuel tanks
3,003 tanks
1,978 artillery pieces
1,693 tactical unmanned aerial systems
283 fighter, attack, and transport jets
413 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
267 attack and transport helicopters
653 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
212 anti-aircraft batteries
178 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
16 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Thursday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and Lyman, which is located in the northeast of the Donbas.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.