Ukraine still fights to reach the town of Kreminna

It has been 335 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Tuesday, the situation on the ground has remained largely unchanged as the war reached its 11th month.

Eleven months of war

In 11 months of conflict, the Russian forces have failed to achieve their primary goals as the Ukrainian government remains in control of Kyiv and most of the country.

In the east, the fighting along the Svatove-Kreminna line continues with Ukrainian and Russian small-scale attacks and counterattacks every day. The Ukrainian forces still haven’t managed to reach the town of Kreminna that would allow them to capture Svatove, a key logistical hub that commands roads and railroads in the region.

In the Donbas, the fighting for Bakhmut continues, though the Russian assaults seem to have lost their edge after the bloody fighting for the capture of Soledar, a small salt mining town to the north of Bakhmut. The Russian forces in the area won’t be achieving any breakthroughs any time soon.

In the south, the two sides are in a waiting pattern, gathering forces and resources for when the weather permits large-scale offensives again. However, it remains to be seen who is going to strike first and in which part of the battlefield. In September, the Ukrainians kept signaling an attack in the south only to suddenly pounce in the east, catching the Russians and the world off guard.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,600 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

A Ukrainian tank in the Donbas during the Donbas war. (File photo)

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Tuesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

122,170 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
6,284 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
4,944 vehicles and fuel tanks
3,152 tanks
2,148 artillery pieces
1,897 tactical unmanned aerial systems
749 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
448 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
289 fighter, attack, and transport jets
281 attack and transport helicopters
220 anti-aircraft batteries
194 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
18 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and along the Kreminna-Svatove line in the east.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: Ukrainian troops in the Donbas during the Donbas war. (File photo)

Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou

Greek Army veteran (National service with 575th Marines Battalion and Army HQ). Johns Hopkins University. You will usually find him on the top of a mountain admiring the view and wondering how he got there.

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