It has been 404 days since the Russian invasion began. On Monday, the Russian military is still in search of an operational breakthrough in Ukraine. At this point, however, it is extremely unlikely that the Russian forces can achieve anything before the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The Ukrainian Counteroffensive
For weeks now, Kyiv has been setting the conditions for a large-scale counteroffensive. Ukrainian officials have suggested that the counteroffensive will take place sometime in the late spring or early summer. But the precise time and place of the offensive operation remains unknown.
Besides the advantage of surprise—if deception succeeds—the Ukrainian military will also have the advantage of fresh, mobile reserves equipped with Western weapon systems. The Ukrainian military is set to receive more than 150 Western main battle tanks, including Challenger 2, Leopard 2, and Leopard 1 tanks, in addition to hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. These weapon systems could make the difference, especially against the increasingly obsolete Russian arsenal.
Every day, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is providing an update on its claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.
However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,800 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 8,300 weapon systems of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.
The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.
In March, U.K. Defense Minister Ben Wallace shared a Western intelligence estimate that assesses that the Russian forces have lost more than 220,000 troops killed or wounded in the conflict so far.
Yet, proper casualty figures are still hard to compute and verify given the fog and friction of war.
As of Monday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:
- 175,160 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
- 6,993 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
- 5,553 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 3,619 tanks
- 2,694 artillery pieces
- 2,262 tactical unmanned aerial systems
- 911 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
- 526 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
- 306 fighter, attack, and transport jets
- 291 attack and transport helicopters
- 280 air defense systems
- 298 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
- 18 boats and cutters
- four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems
On Monday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and along the Kreminna-Svatove line in the east.
The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.
this has to be seen threw to the end now to meany now involed
Tom Reeves DMN says
Somehow Putin needs a way to pull ALL of his troops out of ALL of Ukraine! While still “saving face”.
By now it MUST be obvious to him (Putin) that there is absolutely NO WAY that his troops can defeat the troops of Ukraine!!
The Ukrainian troops WERE kicking the Russian troops ass, BEFORE other Nations FINALLY gave Ukraine REAL fighting vehicles! Such as tanks, airplanes, long range and mobile ‘cannons’ (excuse me but I can’t remember their name right now).
My point is that the Ukrainian military was driven and fought HARD with what they had!!
We KNOW that the Ukrainian military ARE EXCELLENT fighters AND strategists!! Now they have weapons that match OR exceed what the Russians have. I can see them driving the Russians OUT OF UKRAINE!!
But that MIGHT be a HUGE MISTAKE!!
Because that WOULD BE A BIG EMBARRASSMENT FOR Putin!!
Putin is driven not only by power but gaining EVEN MORE POWER!! Given his mental status, he MIGHT “push the nuclear button”. Which makes it CRITICAL that he be given a way out that “saves face”
Something like the President of Ukraine making a public statement, saying something like. “I hate to say this but President Putin was right! During a VERY IN DEPTH INVESTIGATION, we DID FIND Nazis, working in various positions throughout Ukraine! We have identified …… (for a number, he can say something like) 3,125 Nazis working in Ukraine. (Again just for a number) 1,976 were working in Government positions. ALL of them ARE now in jail awaiting trial. Because they are considered a security risk, they are being held without bail. However, we expect more arrests in the very near future”
Something like that would give Putin a way out. While ‘saving face’ with the Russian public!!
WHICH IS CRITICAL!!! I can’t possibly stress that strongly enough!!!
Which nazis in Ukraine are you talking about??? Stop using Russian money here. Amen.