Ukraine is committed to defending Bakhmut but not forever

It has been 384 days since the Russian invasion began. On Wednesday, Bakhmut continues to remain in Ukrainian hands.

The view from the ground

The Russian forces made additional advances in and around Bakhmut. Led by the Wagner Group mercenaries, the Russian forces have been trying to envelop the Ukrainian defenders for a while. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Ukrainian troops are fighting positional battles in and around the town and continue to hold their lines.

The Ukrainian leadership reiterated its commitment to defend Bakhmut. Kyiv, however, has also suggested that it won’t defend the town at any cost, suggesting that when the scale of attrition turns against the Ukrainian military, Ukrainian forces will withdraw.

In the east, the Russian forces continue with their localized assaults along the Kreminna-Svatove line of contact. Heavy Russian shelling in and around Kupyansk is also forcing the Ukrainians to evacuate the town of civilians.

In the south, the situation has remained fairly the same. The two sides are exchanging long-range fires and conduct conventional and special operations raids along the banks of the Dnipro River.

The situation in and around Bakhmut continues to be precarious for the Ukrainian forces. (ISW)

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is providing an update on its claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,800 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 8,300 weapon systems of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Ukrainian forces near Bakhmut earlier in the war. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost way more than 100,000 troops so far in the war. But U.S. officials revised this assessment in February. According to U.S. intelligence, Russia has lost almost 200,000 troops killed or wounded in the conflict so far. Yet, proper casualty figures are still hard to compute and verify given the fog and friction of war.

As of Wednesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

161,520 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
6,799 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
5,377 vehicles and fuel tanks
3,492 tanks
2,528 artillery pieces
2,132 tactical unmanned aerial systems
907 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
502 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
304 fighter, attack, and transport jets
289 attack and transport helicopters
262 air defense systems
257 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
18 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and along the Kreminna-Svatove line in the east.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: A photo taken by the Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade showing the destruction of Bakhmut, February 2023. (Armed Forces of Ukraine)