Ukraine counterattacks as Russian casualties near 40,000

It has been 152 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Monday, the Ukrainian forces are pushing toward Kherson in the south, while the Russian offensive in the Donbas is running out of steam.

The push toward Kherson

The Ukrainian military has launched its push to retake Kherson on the southern front. Although Ukrainian military and intelligence officials are keeping a very close lid on the counteroffensive operations for operational security purposes, there is evidence suggesting that the push has started.

The Ukrainian forces had been setting up the conditions for this counteroffensive operation for some time. About the same time the Russian forces launched their renewed offensive in the Donbas in early May, the Ukrainians started a counteroffensive in the direction of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. After weeks of slow but steady advance, the Ukrainian forces are finally in a position to push directly toward Kherson.

Ukrainian long-range fires, especially those from the celebrated High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), are targeting the Russian supply and communication lines that lead into Kherson. Over the past week, Ukrainian long-range fires have damaged all three bridges that connect Kherson with the rest of Russian-occupied Ukraine.

On Monday, the Russian offensive operations in the Donbas didn’t achieve anything significant.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of almost 900 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 4,700 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far. Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Monday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

39,700 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
3,950 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
2,832 vehicles and fuel tanks
1,730 tanks
876 artillery pieces
719 tactical unmanned aerial systems
222 fighter, attack, and transport jets
257 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
188 attack and transport helicopters
174 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
113 anti-aircraft batteries
73 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
15 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

In Kherson oblast, a Ukrainian soldier fires a Javelin missile at a Russian BTR-80 armored personnel carrier (not visible in this frame). According to video footage, the BTR-80 was destroyed. (Twitter via OSINTtechnical)

Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after nearly five months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both of these factors are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.

For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.

Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.

Then, the concentration of casualties once more shifted back to the Donbas, especially in and around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the two urban centers the Russians managed to capture lately.

On Monday, Ukrainian forces inflicted the heaviest casualties in the direction of Bakhmut and Siversk.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Editor’s Note: The figure in the title has been changed from 50,000 to 40,000 to more accurately reflect current Russian casualties.