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The NFL has a nasty habit. It is, with few exceptions across the league, hopelessly addicted to panicking and taking quarterbacks way too early in the draft, year after year. Like degenerate gamblers, teams use their first-round pick to try and get whole with one big score that will erase all of their past transgressions, dropping another young man in his early twenties into what is often a hopeless situation and a terrible roster around him. This year, however, it looked like NFL teams had finally kicked the habit. Only one quarterback went in the first round, and it wasn’t until the Steelers took Kenny Pickett at 20th overall. Could it be? Has the NFL finally pulled itself together, ditched the sin, and moved on from this toxic, abusive cycle?
No. No, it hasn’t. Like a smoker that only traded cigarettes for vaping, the NFL has merely taken up a new habit that we don’t know quite as much about, but could be revealed to be even more destructive when more data is available. The NFL’s new vice of choice that they just can’t help themselves with? The wide receiver.
Everything was going great until…
The 2022 NFL Draft opened up in a way that would make any football purist smile: Two elite edge rushers, followed by the two best corners in the draft, and then another pass rusher. The top of this draft was tougher to predict than any in recent memory, but five defensive players to start the proceedings? Beautiful.
It only got better at picks six and seven. The Panthers, who desperately need a legitimate quarterback, ignored the temptation to reach for one that wasn’t worthy of the pick and instead took the nastiest and most physical offensive tackle in the draft in Ikem Ekwonu. The Giants then took the 340-pound mauler out of Alabama, Evan Neal. Seven picks that any “football guy” would approve of, defense and offensive line.
Then, it happened… the draft began to go off the rails and eschew all football logic.
With the eighth overall pick, the Falcons– a team that just traded their franchise quarterback away and would appear to be in pure rebuilding mode– selected wide receiver Drake London out of USC. The team that used last year’s fourth overall pick on Kyle Pitts (who, let’s be honest, is just a glorified receiver in his own right) decided to ignore glaring needs from top to bottom on one of the worst rosters in the NFL, and instead opted for the flashy 6’4” wideout.
Okay, a receiver was bound to come off the board sooner or later. No big deal. Except after the Seahawks took tackle Charles Cross, things got weird. The Jets took Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson with the second of their top-10 choices, and the Saints traded up with the Commanders at 11 to take his former teammate, Chris Olave, giving up the 16th pick overall, as well as third and fourth-rounders.
Then, with Minnesota on the board, another trade was announced. It flashed across the screen that it was Lions. “Wow, from all way down at 32? Gotta be for a quarterback,” I thought.
Nope. Alabama’s speedster with a torn ACL, Jameson Williams.
“What?!”
Several picks later, the Commanders were back up on the board to take Jahan Dotson out of Penn State. I’ll be the first to say mock drafts and draft grades are worth next to nothing besides entertainment value, but the Dotson pick raised eyebrows and is widely considered one of the biggest reaches of the first round. Sheesh. Five receivers in nine picks…
Then, a two-fer. The Eagles packaged the eighteenth overall pick and a late third-rounder (101 overall) in a deal for the Titans’ A.J. Brown. The Titans promptly used that 18th overall pick to take, you guessed it, a wide receiver– Treylon Burks, Arkansas. Six receivers in 11 picks…
The run on first-round receivers (and my personal nightmare) was over, except the Cardinals didn’t draft a receiver, they traded their first-rounder for one, making a similar deal as the Eagles, sending the 23rd overall pick and a compensatory third-rounder (100 overall) to the Ravens for Marquise “Hollywood” Brown.
Add in the blockbuster trades in March by the Raiders (Davante Adams) and Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), and you get a total of ten teams that either used a first-round pick to draft a receiver this year, or traded their first-rounder (and more) for a veteran wide receiver. That’s almost a third of the league that placed so much value on the position that they used a fundamental building block of a successful franchise on players that touch the ball, at best, 5-10 times per game.
What the hell just happened?
As you may have gleaned from my tone by this point, I think this is lunacy.
What we have witnessed this off-season, even prior to the draft, is what Eagles general manager Howie Roseman referred to as a wide receiver “boom” just a week before the draft. His tone at the time seemed somewhat dismissive of it, and it even appeared he believed it when took a defensive tackle with the 13th overall pick. But then, even he fell off the wagon, just a year after taking DeVonta Smith 10th overall last year.
“Tory, what’s your problem with wide receivers” you’re probably asking. While I should admit my bias and natural disdain for ball carriers as a former linebacker and guard, it is my job to maintain objectivity. The thing is, I have numbers on my side. Investing heavy draft capital in the wide receiver position is just not a winning formula.
Year after year of witnessing how to build an NFL roster (and how not to), has led me to a very simple philosophy. There are only four positions with which successful franchises consistently use draft capital (by either using the pick or trading it for a veteran).
First, and most obviously, is quarterback. It is very difficult (though certainly not impossible, as evidenced by the likes of Tom Brady and Russell Wilson) to find a franchise quarterback outside the first round. Without a franchise quarterback, the path to a championship is infinitely more difficult. The second is the men tasked with protecting that centerpiece, the offensive tackle. In today’s pass-happy NFL, the best defenses have multiple elite edge rushers, so the conventional wisdom of having a top-notch left tackle to protect the quarterback’s blind side is (or at least, should be) shifting to having capable tackles on both sides.
On the defensive side of the ball, it is about countering those two positions– people who can get to the quarterback and people who can cover, and recent history shows that the former is more important than the latter. For simplicity’s sake, let’s just say edge rushers and corners to round out our four positions that successful teams focus on.
Are there exceptions? Absolutely. There are exceptions to all of these rules. There are generational talents on the interior line (Aaron Donald), at safety or linebacker (Lavonte David or Tyrann Mathieu), or at tight end (George Kittle), but true difference-makers are much harder to find at those spots than the four mentioned above.
The thing is, the draft is all about value. When teams trade an asset like a draft pick, value is the key word. When we “experts” conduct our mock drafts or assign grades to a draft after the fact, it all comes down to “Did Team X get enough bang for their buck? Was that veteran really worth them shipping out that draft pick? Could they have taken that player with a later choice and taken someone who could help their team more with this one?
So this draft, and this offseason in general, has left me scratching my head. In an era of sports where analytics are leaned upon more heavily than ever, how have so many NFL teams fallen victim to their emotions and the temptation of taking the flashy wide receiver?
It’s not that I don’t think receivers are important. I’m not advocating for a return to the Wishbone or Wing-T offense. The forward pass is here to stay, and multiple players that can catch said passes are an integral part of any successful attack. What I am trying to say is that one can (and should) get these players later in the draft.
The numbers don’t lie
With my previously stated argument that most tight ends are glorified wide receivers, follow me down the list of last year’s leaders in receiving yards, with their draft position and the year they were taken.
- Cooper Kupp: Third round- 69th overall, 2017
- Justin Jefferson: First round, 22nd overall, 2020
- Davante Adams Second round- 53rd overall, 2014
- Ja’Marr Chase: First round- fifth overall, 2021
- Deebo Samuel: Second round- 36th overall, 2019
- Mark Andrews: Third round- 86th overall, 2018
- Tyreek Hill: Fifth round- 165th overall, 2016
- Stefon Diggs: Fifth round- 146th overall, 2015
- Tyler Lockett: Third round- 69th overall, 2015
- Diontae Johnson: Third round- 66th overall, 2019
The list goes on to include only three more first-rounders through the top 20, for a grand total of five. So what exactly is the draw of the first-round receiver? If you think I’m just cherry-picking to suit my argument, let’s look at this another way:
In the last decade, how have teams with a first-round pick as a go-to receiver fared in the NFL? Justin Jefferson, taken 22nd overall by the Vikings, is undoubtedly a special talent. He is also yet to play in a playoff game. The same is true of D.J. Moore with the Panthers. CeeDee Lamb’s Cowboys have done nothing in his two years. Mike Williams has won one playoff game in his only trip to the postseason with the Chargers.
DeAndre Hopkins won just two playoff games in his seven seasons in Houston. Even if we give Hopkins the benefit of the doubt, and say the Cardinals might have fared better if he weren’t hurt last year (still seems unlikely considering they sputtered down the stretch and were crushed by the eventual-champion Rams in the Wild Card round), this is just not an impressive resume for first-round receivers. Mike Evans’s Bucs were 34-62 in his six seasons before the immortal Tom Brady arrived.
Brandin Cooks plays for the Texans (no further explanation needed), Kyle Pitts plays for the Falcons (ditto). Jaylen Waddle has promise, but the Dolphins missed the playoffs last year. I can do this all day. Quite simply, elite wide receiver play does not equate to elite results for the team.
I’ll even dig for historical examples. Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson and–as much as it pains me to say it–Larry Fitzgerald, all had minimal playoff success and own exactly zero Super Bowl rings between them. In fact, before Kupp did it this year, the last receiver to lead the lead in receiving yards and win a Super Bowl in the same season? Jerry Rice… in 1995. That’s all ancient history, though, right?
Even taking a look at recent drafts to see if the trend is changing: Where have the most promising receivers been drafted? 2019’s first round produced a bust like N’Keal Harry and a player that has already been shipped out of Baltimore (for another late first-rounder) in Marquise Brown. Rounds two through five, however, produced A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, Diontae Johnson and Hunter Renfrow.
In 2020, a record 13 receivers came off the board in the first two rounds, with very mixed results. The first round ranges from a player who is already out of the league (Henry Ruggs), an unmitigated disaster (Jalen Reagor), a couple of “too-early-to-tells” (Jerry Jeudy and Brandon Aiyuk), to a couple of clear hits (CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson). It should be noted that the two teams in this year’s Super Bowl waited until the second round to grab solid receivers in Tee Higgins and Van Jefferson (thus, using their first-round resources elsewhere).
Teams that lean on their scouting department to find wide receiver talent later in the draft are the ones that are thriving right now. The Chiefs, Titans, Steelers, Ravens, Bills, Packers, 49ers, Bills and… oh yeah, the Super Bowl-champion Rams all found elite wide receiver talent in the second round and beyond.
The talking heads at ESPN constantly refer to the NFL as a “copycat” league. While that is often true, the management approach across much of the league when it comes to wide receivers suggests that it is a “Screw that, I’m smarter than everyone else” league.
The exception to the rule
Now, if you noticed that I’ve left off my hyper-critical list one very notable and recent exception to this phenomenon, you are correct. Ja’Marr Chase is the proverbial thorn in my side when it comes to the “anti-receiver argument.” Taken fifth overall in last year’s draft, all Chase did was rack up 1,455 yards and Rookie of the Year honors while being a key piece in the Bengals’ Super Bowl run this past year.
Just like there are exceptions to my roster-building rules above, Chase is the exception to this first-round receiver/ winning rule I am currently championing. That being said, Chase was also lucky enough to fall into a significantly exceptional situation. Not only was the Bengals offense already flush with weapons like Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon, but he had a budding superstar quarterback in Joe Burrow whom he’d already had the benefit of being teammates with at LSU.
Do league general managers now think that the Bengals are the new model to follow? If what the rest of the league is “copycatting” is pairing a franchise quarterback and a stud wide receiver that played together in college, I have two words for them: GOOD LUCK.
The connection between Burrow and Chase is rare and special. Not only do I not think the Bengals’ model is some new recipe for winning, but the Bengals’ offseason suggests that they don’t think so, either. The scar on Joe Burrow’s left knee from ACL surgery, the image of him hobbling off the field at the end of the Super Bowl with a sprained right MCL, the 70 regular-season sacks, the nine against the Titans in the divisional round, and the seven against the Rams in the Super Bowl, have all finally convinced the Bengals that enough was enough, and it was time to overhaul their offensive line. Enter La’el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karras.
To be completely fair in my analysis here, the first three receivers off the board in 2021 were, far and away, the best of the rookie class. Immediately after Chase at fifth overall came Jaylen Waddle, who posted a 1,000-yard season for Miami. Then at tenth overall was his Alabama teammate, DeVonta Smith, who had 916 yards of his own and looks like he’ll develop into a stud in Philadelphia. Is this evidence that receivers need to be drafted higher, or an aberration? At this time, I am convinced that it is both an aberration, and that one year isn’t enough time to evaluate the rest of that draft class.
Why is this happening?
Who really knows what it is that compels NFL owners and general managers to keep investing such valuable picks in receivers? Do they prioritize selling tickets and jerseys over winning? Do they care more about their fantasy team than their real team? Is it simply a case of meddling owners that just plain do not know what they’re doing? All three might be true in various cases.
It might be the latter more than anything else. Owners are little more than casual fans. The smart ones are self-aware enough to know that and leave football decisions to football people. Casual fans follow the ball and lose track of all the other battles in the game. Wide receivers are the recipient of the most “splash” plays, so the untrained eye sees it as the wide receiver did most of the work. This isn’t anything new, but receivers (along with quarterbacks) are certainly seeing an even greater share of publicity than in years past.
The league is evolving, there is no question of that. It always is. For years, the NFL has made frequent rule changes under the guise of player safety that have really been more about catering to the passing game and high-octane offense, leading to inflated statistics and scores. Perhaps this has also artificially inflated the value of wideouts and made them rocket up draft boards similar to how quarterbacks did for so many years, only to be mostly “busts” up against the lofty expectations placed upon them.
These accommodations for passing attacks in the NFL have made receivers easier to find, not harder. Wide receiver is the new running back. Believe me, it’s not easy for a guy who loves the power running game to say it, but running backs are not a position you need to draft early to find high production. Maybe I’ll chase that rabbit down its hole another time.
Wide receivers are becoming a similar commodity. Defensive backs and linebackers are now called for illegal contact and holding every time they breathe on a receiver wrong. I hear offensive pass interference is technically still in the rule book, but based on its enforcement the last few seasons, you could have fooled me. Outstanding athleticism is still required to play the position. What isn’t nearly as important to be a successful wide receiver are the nuances that used to be crucial to the game, the arts of route running, coverage recognition, getting open, or being strong, tough, and fearless.
Please don’t get it twisted. I’m not saying there aren’t still elite route runners or smart players, nor am I saying there aren’t receivers with incredible mental or physical fortitude. I’m merely saying that it is easier than ever for a receiver to get away with being deficient in one or more of these attributes. Finding separation, winning contested balls, and running routes over the middle is easier than it has ever been for them, and that means it is easier to find productive players later in the draft.
There are psychological elements at play here, too. Just like running back, the wide receiver position benefits from the fairly obvious understanding that every kid wants to play there and be the star. The best athletes at the highest reaches of high school and college football will want to be receivers, too. The pipeline from youth football all the way to the professional ranks is only going to get richer with talent. It’s simple economics. The supply of wide receivers will only increase, so demand should decrease.
Another thing that the ever-popular analytics can’t quantify is the human element of the ego. Wide receiver, at any level of football, is generally the position with the biggest personalities. Receivers only get the spotlight on them several times a game, but those several times are often “chunk” plays and at pivotal moments of the game. This is the best theory I can come up with for why receivers are often the most colorful, enigmatic, mercurial, bombastic and flamboyant personas on the field. I just made extensive use of my thesaurus to diplomatically say that often (not always), receivers are a pain in the ass to teammates and coaches.
Keeping that exaggerated confidence in mind, let’s circle back to when these players are drafted. Are these ego-maniacs that fall out of the first round coming into the league with more of a chip on their shoulder after that perceived slight? Are those that are humbled by not being a first-rounder further motivated to prove their worth, more receptive to coaching, and more team-oriented? These are admittedly oversimplified theories trying to explain something that is multi-faceted and much more complex.
Regardless of the reasons why, or if you are a fan that loves the passing game and wants your team to take the best receiver in the draft every year, there is just too much evidence stacked up against it for me to think that so many wide receivers are worth $25-million contracts and first-round picks. It has not been a successful roster-building philosophy throughout the league’s entire history. At this point it boggles the mind that the myth of “getting your quarterback a weapon” curing all ills not only still exists, but actually grows stronger.
I would hate to be wrong about all of this, and for the developing reality to be that there will soon be only one path to a championship in the modern NFL–which would essentially be to assemble the best flag football team and chuck the football around the yard for 60 minutes. Frankly, I wouldn’t care to watch anymore if that were the case.
But fear not, fellow football purists… I’m not wrong. You’ll see.
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Feature image: Photos by All-Pro Reels via Flickr and screen capture from YouTube
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