The Ukrainian southern counteroffensive is picking up

It has been 160 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian forces continue to slowly but steadily push toward Kherson while the Russian military is relocating forces from other parts of the battlefield to the south.

A shifting of forces

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the direction of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia is gaining steam, and the Russian military is finally acknowledging that. Over the last couple of weeks, the Russian military has been shifting forces from other parts of the battlefield, most notably from the Donbas, to the southern front.

However, that relocation of forces will certainly affect the offensive combat capabilities of the Russian forces in the Donbas because of the widespread force generation issues that have been plaguing the Russian military. Put simply, Moscow doesn’t have enough troops to go around and can’t sustain effective offensive combat operations on more than one front.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 900 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 4,700 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far. Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Ukrainian tanks march — Ukrainian tanks during an exercise in 2015. (Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs)

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Tuesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

41,170 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
4,014 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
2,914 vehicles and fuel tanks
1,768 tanks
936 artillery pieces
739 tactical unmanned aerial systems
223 fighter, attack, and transport jets
259 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
191 attack and transport helicopters
174 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
117 anti-aircraft batteries
82 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
15 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after nearly five months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both of these factors are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.

destroyed Russian T-72 with cage — A Russian T-72B3 with a “cope cage” destroyed by the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade using a Javelin in March. (Ukrainian 128th Mountain Assault Brigade)

For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.

Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.

Then, the concentration of casualties once more shifted back to the Donbas, and especially in and around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the two urban centers the Russians managed to capture lately.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces inflicted the heaviest casualties in the direction of Bakhmut and Kryvyi Rih.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.