The Russian offensive in Ukraine recommences

It has been 145 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Monday, the Russian military recommenced its major offensive operations in eastern Ukraine but without any significant developments.

The battlefield today

Although the theater-wide Russian operational pause came to an end over the weekend, the Russian forces have followed a measured return to offensive operations and haven’t achieved any major breakthroughs.

In the Donbas, the Russian military continues to attack in the direction of Siversk (in the north), and Bakhmut (in the south) with ground forces. It launches long-range fires throughout the battlefield to harass the Ukrainian forces.

“As ISW has previously noted, the end of the Russian operational pause is unlikely to create a massive new wave of ground assaults across multiple axes of advance despite Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s public order for exactly that. Russian troops are prioritizing advances around Siversk and Bakhmut while maintaining defensive positions north of Kharkiv City and along the Southern Axis,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational update.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of almost 900 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 4,700 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far. Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Monday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

38,450 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
3,886 armored personnel carriers destroyed
2,753 vehicles and fuel tanks
1,687 tanks
849 artillery pieces
690 tactical unmanned aerial systems
220 fighter, attack, and transport jets
248 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
188 attack and transport helicopters
166 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
113 anti-aircraft batteries
70 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
15 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

Soldiers with the Ukrainian Land Forces conduct training utilizing the Boyevaya Mashina Pekhoty 2 infantry fighting vehicle Dec. 16, 2015, during a mounted machine gunnery range as part of Fearless Guardian II at the International Peacekeeping Security Center near Yavoriv, Ukraine. Soldiers with the Ukrainian Army will learn fundamentals on individual and collective firing and the skills needed to perform during a wartime mission. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Adriana M. Diaz-Brown, 10th Press Camp Headquarters)

Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after nearly five months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both of these factors are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.

For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.

Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.

On Monday, Ukrainian forces inflicted the heaviest casualties in the vicinity of Bakhmut.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature image: A soldier of the Ukrainian border forces with an anti-tank gun in Kharkiv. (Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs)