The Russian military is reorganizing to prepare for more Ukrainian counterattacks

It has been 268 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Friday, the two sides are still largely recovering from the Ukrainian liberation of most of Kherson province.

The situation on the ground

Nothing has really changed on the ground.

In the east, the Ukrainian forces are trying to reach Svatove, a key logistical hub, from the south. But they have first to capture Kreminna to do that, and that is where most of the fighting is taking place right now.

In the Donbas, the Russian forces continued for yet another day with their ground assaults against Bakhmut and Avdiivka, but with no success.

In the south, the Ukrainian military is consolidating its positions on the newly-liberated part of Kherson province, while the Russians are trying to prepare for the next wave of attacks.

According to the British Military Intelligence, the Russian military is currently prioritizing “refitting, reorganisation, and the preparation of defences” all across Ukraine in anticipation of further Ukrainian counteroffensives in the coming weeks and months.

However, the Russian forces in the eastern part of the Kherson province are now within range of the Ukrainian long-range fires, namely, the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), and the M-777 155mm Howitzers using the M982 Excalibur precision-strike rounds.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,400 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Ukrainian National Guard soldiers maintaining a checkpoint in 2015. (Photo by Staff Sgt. Alex Skripnichuk/13th Public Affairs Detachment)

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Friday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

83,460 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
5,808 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
4,366 vehicles and fuel tanks
2,879 tanks
1,865 artillery pieces
1,536 tactical unmanned aerial systems
278 fighter, attack, and transport jets
393 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
262 attack and transport helicopters
480 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
209 anti-aircraft batteries
161 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
16 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Friday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, Avdiivka, which located farther to the south of Bakhmut, and Lyman in the east.

The stated goal of the Russian military is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: A Ukrainian T-72B1 tank. (14th Prince Roman the Great Mechanized Brigade/Wikimedia Commons)