It has been 406 days since the Russian invasion began. On Wednesday, the Russian campaign in Ukraine is faltering. The Russian forces are stuck on the ground and are having trouble achieving meaningful progress.
Over the past few days, the momentum of the large-scale Russian offensive has almost evaporated. The Russian military and Wagner Group private military company are back in a routine of localized, small-scale assaults against the Ukrainian positions in the Donbas and east. However, these assaults lack the resources—men and weapon systems—and the superior combined arms doctrine to produce anything more than just some marginal territorial gains, which when they come and paid in heavy casualties.
Over the past 24 hours, the Russian forces conducted limed ground assaults along the Svatove-Kreminna line of contact in the east.
In the Donbas, they continued with attacks in and around the town of Bakhmut. But the Ukrainian defenses are holding for the time being. The Russian forces also attacked in the direction of Avdiivka, further south in the Donbas.
In the south, the situation is the same: the Russian military is expanding its fortifications and preparations in anticipation of the large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive that could strike there.
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Every day, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is providing an update on its claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.
However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,800 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 8,300 weapon systems of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.
The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.
In March, U.K. Defense Minister Ben Wallace shared a Western intelligence estimate that assesses that the Russian forces have lost more than 220,000 troops killed or wounded in the conflict so far.
Yet, proper casualty figures are still hard to compute and verify given the fog and friction of war.
As of Wednesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:
- 176,240 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
- 7,005 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
- 5,573 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 3,629 tanks
- 2,707 artillery pieces
- 2,283 tactical unmanned aerial systems
- 911 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
- 532 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
- 306 fighter, attack, and transport jets
- 291 attack and transport helicopters
- 280 air defense systems
- 299 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
- 18 boats and cutters
- four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems
On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and along the Kreminna-Svatove line in the east.
The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.
Feature Image: Ukrainian troops atop an armoured personal carrier in the Donbas. (Creative Commons)
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ลิงค์รับทรัพย์ sexy gaming says
May you never stop developing your thoughts. I’m looking forward to reading your next article.
Are you doing ok hopefully?! I have REALLY enjoyed your well-written Ukraine updates!
The Ders says
More garbage “reporting” from a propagandistic website.
The numbers on the ground do not support this assessment whatsoever.
In a year, I wonder what kind of cope-reporting you will publish to explain your misleading narratives of today. 😂
Sam Smith says
Send F-16 and A-10s and this will be over fast. Smells like the same politician who lost Vietnam with imposed restrictions and lost Afghanistan, WAIT! That was Biden..
” the momentum of the large-scale Russian offensive has almost evaporated. ”
“they continued with attacks in and around the town of Bakhmut. But the Ukrainian defenses are holding for the time being.”
What “large scale offensive”? There isn’t one. What is going on is the Russians have the Ukrainians in a very un-dramatic, very tight bear hug in Donbas, and they are squeezing the sh!t out of them.
“evaporated”, “Ukrainian defenses are holding”? The Russians have taken 85% of Bakhmut!
As I have commented before, if the Oryx reports were remotely accurate, Ukraine would have hundreds more tanks now than it started the war with, and would not now be begging for Abrams, Challengers and Leopards.
But they are, and therefore the Oryx reports are nonsense.
As for Ukrainian claims of Russian casualties, if true, it would mean Ukrainians are inflicting casualties on Russians at a far higher rate (making due allowances for the smaller scale of the conflict and numbers involved) than the Nazis did to the Red Army in WW2. No chance, outnumbered 10 to 1 in artillery.
“Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims.” No. They do not corroborate them, they merely repeat them without informing that the source of their estimates in Ukrainian MOD.
Repitition is not corroboration.
How about more informed, critical analysis and less repitition of propaganda reports with minimalist caveats regarding their blatant inaccuracy?
commom sense says
Finally someone speaking some truth out here, thanks.
John Lear says
Itexpat – how about applying your “standards” to yourself! Otherwise, you’re just another liar who’s lying about others he/she disagrees with or whose politics and ideology he/she blindly opposes. Start with the basic question: what possible, reasonable, realistic justification do you have in supporting Russia’s invasion and genocide of Ukraine? Note that being Russian or being paid by Russia does not qualify…
Oh look ltexpat the Putinoid. Gerisamov is heavily invested in propaganda applied to undermine opposition to their military objectives in Ukraine. Oryx is not wrong.
The Putinoid propaganda is wrong. Oryx underestimates losses because only physical evidence is tabulated.
Putin is in trouble and desperate to save himself. A sixth floor hospital window is calling.