It has been 287 days since the Russian invasion began. On Wednesday, the Russian military is trying to advance in the Donbas and finally capture Bakhmut.
The battle for Bakhmut
Although the Russian forces have made gains north and south of the city, Moscow isn’t close to surrounding or capturing Bakhmut. The Ukrainian defenders are still holding fast, and the successful counteroffensive in the south has allowed Kyiv to reposition forces to make sure the city doesn’t fall.
The Russians have been trying to capture Bakhmut since the early summer. But besides gaining a few miles in the vicinity of the city and capturing some small villages and settlements, Moscow’s attempts have so far failed. Meanwhile, the cost has been extremely high, with the Russian forces losing thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces, drones, and other weapon systems in their attempt to seize the city.
The Ukrainian military is saying that the fighting for Bakhmut is some of the most intense in the war so far.
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Russian casualties
Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.
However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,500 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.
The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.
Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.
In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.
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In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.
Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.
As of Wednesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:
- 92,740 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
- 5,909 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
- 4,526 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 2,935 tanks
- 1,923 artillery pieces
- 1,601 tactical unmanned aerial systems
- 281 fighter, attack, and transport jets
- 395 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
- 264 attack and transport helicopters
- 592 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
- 211 anti-aircraft batteries
- 163 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
- 16 boats and cutters
- four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems
On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and Lyman, which is located in the northeast of the Donbas.
The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.
Feature Image: Ukrainian troops manning a barricade in the Donbas in 2013. (Wikimedia Commons via UTR News)
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