According to a recent series of war games carried out by a Washington DC-based think-tank, preventing the success of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could all come down to a single American missile system and its effective use against China’s invasion fleet.
A 165-page report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), titled The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan outlined the outcomes of 24 wargame scenarios in which China launches a full-scale invasion in 2026. Leveraging the full breadth of unclassified information about each country’s respective military capabilities, stockpiles, and doctrine, the project team played each scenario through the end of the heaviest fighting, and the results were largely positive for those in the West… though positive is a subjective term.
While the United States was able to successfully help defend Taiwan in nearly all instances, every victory came at an incredible cost — including massive warships like aircraft carriers and dozens, if not hundreds, of tactical aircraft.
Of all the platforms and weapon systems employed in these war games, two similar and specific types of missile stood out as particularly essential to defending Taiwan: the AGM-158B Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range (JASSM-ER) and its ship-hunting sibling, the AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM).
According to the CSIS report, America’s stockpiles of varied-purpose JASSM-ERs will reach as high as 3,650 units by 2026, while its stockpile of maritime-specific LRASMs will only reach 450 or so. And that may be a problem, as the LRASM could neuter much of China’s invasion without having to fly or sail many American assets into range of China’s anti-ship or anti-air weapon systems.
Related: The US military would likely prevail against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
The AGM-158B JASSM-ER
The JASSM-ER is a conventionally armed, low-observable, air-launched cruise missile that first entered service in 2014. While its predecessor, the AGM-158 JASSM, was powered by a turbojet engine, the JASSM-ER swaps that out for a turbofan more like the powerplants found in tactical fighters. That new engine, alone with a re-organized internal structure for added fuel storage, increased the weapon’s range from around 230 miles (370 kilometers) to better than 620 miles (1,000 kilometers).
The missile is guided throughout most of its flight via an internal inertial navigation and GPS unit that was originally developed for weapons like AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW), which is actually a glide bomb, but once it’s in close quarters, it transitions to an infrared seeker for terminal guidance.
That seeker can read more than just heat signatures, however, and it reportedly leveraged three-dimensional targeting models to locate and identify its intended target as it closes in. The missile can store up to eight different target images for multiple potential targets.
The missile carries a 1,000-pound WDU-42/B penetrating warhead, which includes at least 240 pounds worth of AFX-757 — a new form of explosive developed by the Air Force Research Laboratory/High Explosives Research and Development Facility, Eglin AFB, Florida.
Related: Taiwan Strait Crises: How history is repeating itself in the Pacific
The AGM-15C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM)
The AGM-158C LRASM was based directly on the JASSM-ER, entering service four years after its sibling in 2018. While the LRASM shares a number of components with other JASSMs, its targeting and guidance suite is said to be unique. Unlike other missiles, the LRASM doesn’t need to have an intended target when launched. Instead, the missile can reportedly conduct autonomous targeting, leveraging a combination of passive RF data-link and onboard systems to identify enemy vessels in-flight, choosing a target once it finds it.
While not quite as long-legged as the JASSM-ER, the LRASM can strike targets as far as 230 miles out, giving launching aircraft plenty of distance to avoid the types of surface-to-air missile systems commonly leveraged by Chinese naval vessels, and with appropriate mission planning and support, could likely allow launch platforms to even avoid enemy fighter patrols.
The LRASM can be carried in large numbers by bombers or in smaller numbers by a variety of fighters. The B-1B Lancer can reportedly carry 24, the B-2 Spirit can carry 20, and the B-52H can carry 20, while the Navy’s Super Hornets as well as Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles and F-16 Fighting Falcons can reportedly carry one or two each. The LRASM is too large to be carried internally by the F-35, but it can be carried externally.
Related: What does the invasion of Ukraine mean for China and Taiwan?
Can the JASSM-ER become an anti-ship missile to save Taiwan?
The AGM-158C LRASM would play a pivotal role in engaging China’s amphibious invasion fleet as it crossed the Taiwan Strait and attempted to establish a strategic foothold, but with only 450 or so of these missiles to leverage and the expectation that Chinese missile defenses will have some level of success intercepting these subsonic missiles, the stockpile would not be sufficient to end the conflict decisively.
However, if the infrared-imaging seeker on the JASSM-ER proves effective at engaging moving ships at sea, that could dramatically shift the way American forces could leverage the JASSM family of missiles in such a conflict.
If the longer-ranged JASSM-ER can engage maritime targets, the U.S. would have enough platforms and missiles to launch massive volleys of these missiles at Chinese ships from hundreds of miles away. And while the LRASMs would still prove most effective at engaging ships, Chinese missile defenses couldn’t afford to ignore the slightly less-capable JASSM-ERs. As a result, the overwhelming number of missiles would saturate defenses to the point that it would be impossible to stop most from finding their targets.
In fact, as the CSIS put it, “In games where the JASSM-ER has maritime strike capabilities, the abundance of U.S. munitions made U.S. strategy an almost uncomplicated exercise.”
Read more from Sandboxx News
- Taiwan Strait Crises: How history is repeating itself in the Pacific
- US warns China to not send weapons and ammo to Russia
- What does the invasion of Ukraine mean for China and Taiwan?
- Controlling killer swarms of swarms: Inside DARPA’s AMASS
- The US military would likely prevail against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan (but at great cost)
And how are you going to get a war ship between China and Taiwan without it being sunk you Muppet
The S400 Missile defence systems in China will take out nearly all US Missiles, suggest you Muppets learn some fundamentals of object tracking
Bottom line boys and girls.
Propaganda or not.
China is a formidable adversary. But remember so we’re the Japanese. As a country regardless of our difference’s America is strongest when faced with crushing adversity, that’s when the Country will come together and bring it in for the win.
Our best option as human beings is negotiating. China will come to a compromise because the alternative they face is Taiwan, Japan, US, Philippines, Australia, Vietnam and any other Country in the South China Sea. To much is at stake
Both Countries are strong and prideful but there will be no winners if this escalates to war
We’ve learnt nothing from the war in Ukraine and still assume that wars will be fought on our terms and to our time scales and to our stockpiles of weapons …
If the war in Ukraine has taught us anything that we need to plan for any future war to be expected to be a long drawn out affair lasting for months with the ammunitions and supplies for it needing to be in place … Ok a war with China is not going to become a land war but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be over in a matter of days or weeks.
I don’t think I saw any comments from any Taiwanese above. At the end of the day Taiwan belongs to the Taiwanese. If they can do business with any country in support of their security good for them. This should apply to any country in which its citizens are put first not the government. The government must take orders from its citizens not the other way around.
Taiwan itself in its own constitution says it is part of China, so does every country acknowledge this its only who governs China that is disputed.
Most people talking on this article have no understanding of history how the US fights wars, the Japanese made this mistake in WW2
Any move on Taiwan would be a disaster for China and US losses would be light,
The US military is bitting at the opportunity to crush the Chinese for longer than most of you have been alive, deep down most Americans hate China and would love the opportunity to show it .
China has respect for the US nuclear capability that they are not even close to matching, so in the end China will continue to talk big crap but can’t back it up, in a major conflict China military would collapse in 48 hours or less , they even know this . Mark my words for all you naysayers the truth is a bitch . 10 years from now you will not see China make any moves . Because they are not as stupid as the talk .
I hope you are right
Never underestimate your opponents, China is not some small defenseless middle east country. The world has changed, we are no longer in a world dominated by the US.
A ship’s a fool that fights a fort. Latest US War gaming shows US will lose to China if US fight in South China Sea. Go read latest rand Corp report 2022.
1. We should stick out our noise out of China business too. Don’t be bussy
What do you mean by China’s business? If they invade Taiwan it is everyone’s business. Unfortunately the most likely scenario is a massive strike on Taiwan, establishing a bridgehead before the US or anyone else can do anything about it. I’d expect than within five years.
Let us not be pompous, not even in a small way.
Before risking deadly tragedy THINK of CHINA just threatening how they can change our mind ,if they don’t get what they want. This UNITED STATES has profited into Lossing to CHINA. WE have profited our nose, but lost our face. Those that think outside the box don’t necessarily think outside the bag the box is in. Good luck AMERICA!!
Love the obvious comments by China’s trolls here pretending to be Westerners. At least run you garbage through Chat GPT so you sound western. “Lost our face???” Really?? Do you think anyone west of Shanghai talks that way.
Bottom line, any military adventure against Taiwan win, lose, or draw would be the end of Modern China. Forget about military consequences, the economic consequence would be catastrophic. The 15-20% of the Chinese economy that embraces Capitalism and Private Property rights is responsible for lifting billions of people out of poverty. All that would be left is the 80-85% of the Chinese economy that is stupid state-planned garbage, a relic of Maoist China when famine was regularly caused by the party. China would revert to being a North Korean type Hermit kingdom under a totaliterian boot as they have no solid friends other than terminally ill Putin and would quickly be kicked out the global economic community. Then cut off from western capital and innovation.
i know right! Trolls pushing propaganda! What they don’t know I what they are getting in to. They going to go dark just let ke we will but ours won’t be Stone Age..
Yep for sure, Chinese trolls… If their technology is so great it is hilarious how childish their grammar and English is… It’s the same as my solar powered sidewalk lights from China they last 3 days and then go out LOL… I wonder if they’re military hardware is the same cheap ass stuff they send to the United States to sell 🤣
Says the ignorant Yank, hint the US hasn’t won a war since ww2 and it was the Soviets that caused 80% of NAZI losses. Learn some history. 85% of the world’s population are ignoring Sanctions on Russia that’s why they aren’t working you dipper
Liberal Kenny, this is why the US has some F’ed up ssues is because ppl like you trying to bad mouth my country with your dumbass liberal social media propaganda crap!
To defend Taiwan we convert EMALS into a electromagnetic (EM) catapult. If EMALS can launch a 60,000 pound fighter off a carrier it can certainly be redesigned to throw a 2,000 pound bomb. The reason an EM-Cat works for Taiwan is due to geography. The Taiwan Strait is about 100 miles wide. The EM-Cat only needs to throw the munition up to a height where the weapon can glide to its target. If we’re using dumb bombs and the bomb doesn’t have a glide kit then the range and height depend on the guidance kit attached to the bomb. The EM-Cat can also be used to throw SDBs, drones, and AMRAAMs. The AMRAAM requires the EM-Cat to launch the missile at a high velocity up to its apex where the AMRAAM engine ignites and the missile homes in on its assigned target. The main benefit of the EM-Cat is no pilots or aircraft launch vehicles are required. Plus dumb bombs are cheaper than cruise missiles. Even if China launches 200 aircraft, 200 military ships, and 300 commercial ships (some are decoys) the EM-Cat can fire as long as bombs and electricity are available. DoD should study this concept for the defense of Taiwan.
Interesting concept and take Larry. Never would’ve crossed my mind. I’m all in favor of keeping our boys and most expensive assets as far away from such a conflict as possible. I’ve read many scenarios of these simulated war games and “what if’s” defending Taiwan, and this article was one of the first that didn’t end with mass American casualties and losses. I don’t think winning would be an issue, at least for now and the near future, but such a conflict with so many losses would leave the US weakened inevitably and a bit of a sitting duck until they could rebuild and replace. And I’m all for defending Taiwan, as the semiconductor industry alone is invaluable to the US. One of many reasons undoubtedly. You’re idea seems sound…thanks for sharing. Perhaps the Defense Dept. is listening. 😊
send idea to DARPA
While F-16s can carry 2 JASSM family weapons, the Super Hornet can actually carry 4 and the F-15E/EX can carry 5. The B-2 can only carry 16 in its 2 weapons bays on 8-weapon rotary launchers, not 20.
What invasion…..Taiwan belongs to China
No it does not. If the vast majority of a population says they’re independent then they are and should be independent. Same goes for Ukraine and any other nation on earth.
Taiwanese say they don’t and they should have self determination.
Why would a free society change for uncle Pooh’s iron fist?
Taiwan has never been part of the communist ruled China. It fought to be independent of communism and the western world will defend that freedom.
😂😂😂
Then why did China got all pissy when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan? It would just be like Pelosi visited China, right?
You don’t own shit and never will. There’s nothing belongs to you other than the shit you stole, you mf Ching Chong Clan.
Because she didn’t ask China if she could visit Taiwan you dipper. You make a sea lion sound intelligent.
TAIWAN has been separated from China since the 50, leave the Taiwanese alone. Why not try to LIVE Peacefully. What can anybody Benefit from WAR. Any NUCLEAR WAR will END HUMANITY and This EVIL WORLD.
If you actually read the history of the island of Fomosa you will see that it is much more complicated than that. In any event China itself is under the tyranny of an illegal regime. Long live the emperors!
Taiwan itself in its own constitution says it is part of China, so does every country acknowledge this its only who governs China that is disputed.
The problem with war games is that other countries do not think like US military, lets go kill them all quickly. China will control Tiawan, maybe not this decade or next but rest assured China will control Tiawan. No shots will be fired and no invasion that cost a lot of money to rebuild. China will not destroy what they perceive as being China. China is already on a pace to exceed Tiawan’s chip dominance and it will happen if they stay the course.
Exceed in numbers yes …. Exceed in sophistication no.
Absolutely, they can’t even make solar powered sidewalk lights at Lowe’s work for more than a week LOL. All of the BS military hardware they come up with is just a copy of us designs and with their inferior jet engine technology and copycat knockoffs who knows how long their garbage would actually last in a conflict
Suggest you study China’s SSMB based EUV light source, higher power and repartition rate currently being integrated into lithography machine
When 97% of Taiwan doesn’t want the CCP, it’s a bold strategy Cotton.
Hong Kong isn’t governed by CPC communist party of China. Its always CP country i.e. CPA Australia, CPUSA for USA, CPRF Russian Federation etc
CHINA is a Very BIG Country, and Economically good, there is no need to INVADE TAIWAN, “ ENOUGH is BETTER than TOO MUCH”
What missile?? Just one Nuke..lol
Remember that though US’s nukecan ruin china many times, china’s have enough to ruin US once!
For reasons I can’t explain people forget the axiom “It’s not the glove, it’s the player”. The US has potent weapons technology, probably the best in the world, and it can give/lend/sell that technology to Taiwan to defend itself…but it still ends up at the same place. No technology can over come poor leadership or inept utilization. Having “Thor’s Hammer” means nothing if the people in possession of it don’t know how to use it or are unwilling to use it. The Americans have all the means necessary to pummel the Chinese and they can give/sell/lend it to Taiwan if they choose to, but America has a bad habit of “bowing out” when the going gets tough or it takes too long. In the case of a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan, it should be over either very quickly or not at all. If the Chinese don’t take Taiwan within months, it devolves into a long, ugly struggle which America probably won’t support.
For all of it’s current issues, the US Military has tons of combat experienced soldiers and leaders, the Chinese military, well, not so much. Unless you count stone age skirmishes (literally sticks, stones, and fists) with India along their shared border.
Absolutely, what practical experience has China’s military had in the last 50 years? None… Shining lasers at fishing boats doesn’t count
It’s all done with missiles and missile defence systems. The Art of War states ‘A ship’s a fool that fights a fort’
Thank you for this article and also a BIG thank you for the video analysis of stealth titled ‘Russia and Ch8ina can…’. I thought the video was excellent.
“In games where the JASSM-ER has maritime strike capabilities, the abundance of U.S. munitions made U.S. strategy an almost uncomplicated exercise.” Well… we can’t have that now can we… /sarc.
so, even if the JASSM-ER can only be mildly adapted to maritime targets (that should be easy) – it still serves the purpose, provided it is used carefully
They MUST be used as part of a coordinated, massive strike, which includes LRASM in the mix
the longer legged JASSM-ER are launched from close to max range, and a strike package armed with LRASM continues alongside the JASSM-ER (or catches up to them) to launch LRASM from just inside it’s max range, so that the LRASM are interspersed with the JASSM-ER
50 LRASM mixed in with 500 JASSM-ER would overwhelm any Chinese anti-ship defenses, and sink everything they had on the water within range.
The US as we have now realised doesn’t have much manufacturing ability to produce weapons quickly and this will be very expensive to fix. If Russia has superior manufacturing capacity than the US think what China can produce especially now they are working together
With the distance between China and Taiwan at 100 miles, the JASSM is all that’s required, without the ER upgrade, which means it’s faster and cheaper to produce.