The fight for Bakhmut intensifies but Russian reservists can’t offer much

It has been 279 days since the Russian invasion began. On Tuesday, the war in Ukraine is largely adjusting to the incoming winter but with heavy fighting taking place in the south of the Donbas around Bakhmut.

Fighting in the Donbas

In the past few days, the Russian military has made some gains around Bakhmut. Russian forces captured positions south and north of the Ukrainian city, but an encirclement of Bakhmut seems unlikely as the Russian military lacks mobile reserves that could create and take advantage of a breakthrough. For now, the Ukrainian defenses are holding.

Russian forces have been trying to capture Bakhmut for more than four months. The infamous private military company Wagner Group is taking the lead in the fight for the city. Mobilized Russian reservists are also supporting the Russian offensive operations, but their inexperience and lack of proper weapon systems and winter gear mean that they are nothing more than cannon fodder.

The Russian high command doesn’t seem to be fazed by the high casualties and continues to send thousands of troops to the meat grinder that is the Donbas.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,500 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

Russian artillery units during exercises — Russian artillery units during a 2020 exercise. (Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Tuesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

88,380 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
5,866 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
4,423 vehicles and fuel tanks
2,911 tanks
1,901 artillery pieces
1,555 tactical unmanned aerial systems
280 fighter, attack, and transport jets
395 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
261 attack and transport helicopters
531 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
209 anti-aircraft batteries
163 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
16 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, Pavlivka, and Avdiivka, which are all located in the south of the Donbas.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu inspects the equipment of mobilized reservists. (Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)

Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou

Greek Army veteran (National service with 575th Marines Battalion and Army HQ). Johns Hopkins University. You will usually find him on the top of a mountain admiring the view and wondering how he got there.

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