Air power is one of the most important aspects of modern warfare. Since World War II, when air power came of age, fighter and bomber aircraft have played a key role in wars. In Ukraine today, that is not the case.
Despite having one of the most advanced air forces in the world, the Russian military has failed to use air power effectively in Ukraine. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Air Force has performed beyond its pre-war means, denying Russia mastery of the skies.
A recent report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) assessed the state of the air war over Ukraine.
RUSI is the oldest think tank of its kind in the world, with a history of more than 200 years. Their analysis of Ukraine has been exceptional and has provided solid insight into understanding the war, especially the poor performance of the Russian armed forces. These are some of its most interesting key judgments.
Key judgments
Since April, the Russian Aerospace Forces have lost their ability to operate at low altitudes and to conduct deep penetration raids behind the Ukrainian lines because of the Ukrainian air defenses. Although the Russian forces targeted the fixed air defense positions of the Ukrainian military, they failed to destroy the mobile anti-aircraft systems, such as the S-300 anti-aircraft weapon. In addition, the influx of thousands of FIM-92 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and other weapon systems into Ukraine from the West has allowed the Ukrainian forces to target and destroy Russian fighter jets and helicopters with relative ease.
Aircraft on both sides either operate from afar and deploy long-range weapons or fly extremely low for short periods of time.
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Despite the fact that the Russian Aerospace Forces haven’t achieved air superiority over Ukraine, Russian fighter jets remain highly effective against their Ukrainian adversaries by using long-range missiles. More specifically, RUSI assesses that the Russian Su-35S and MiG-31BM, respectively equipped with the R-77-1 long-range and R-37 very long-range missiles, have been highly effective near the contact line.
Moreover, according to RUSI, the Russian Aerospace Forces conducted “significantly more extensive fixed-wing strike operations during the first days of the invasion than has been previously documented,” effectively suppressing the Ukrainian ground-based air defense network in the initial days of the invasion.
The Ukrainian military managed to save several of its mobile anti-aircraft systems by constantly moving them around and keeping a tight operational security around them — for example, Kyiv didn’t even disclose the movements of its mobile anti-aircraft batteries to the U.S., Ukraine’s biggest military and intelligence supporter in the war.
Related: Russia uses ‘relic’ weapons in Ukraine, including the 9K111 Fagot anti-tank system
What Ukraine needs to dominate the air power war
The RUSI report finishes off with some policy recommendations for the West. Ukraine’s defense has been remarkable, but its effectiveness continues to hinge on U.S. and Western combat and logistical support.
RUSI concludes that the West “must avoid complacency about the need to urgently bolster Ukrainian air-defence capacity.”
The Ukrainian mobile anti-aircraft missile systems and radars are the only thing standing between Russian tactical air superiority, which would open the way for Moscow to target and destroy Ukrainian strategic targets and frontline positions from medium altitudes.
Since September, the Russian military has launched repeated drone (mainly the Iranian Shahed 136) and missile attacks against Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure. The Ukrainian air defenses are intercepting a large percentage of the incoming drones and cruise missiles. But those that make it through are inflicting great damage.
Related: How Ukrainian soldiers are using drones to fight Russians on the ground
Ukrainian air defenses need ammunition and new weapon systems. The U.S. has supplied the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile (NASAMS), which, according to U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, has a 100 percent interception rate. Germany has sent the IRIS-T SLM missile and other countries have provided smaller anti-aircraft systems. But the Russian air threat remains, and so does Ukraine’s need for more anti-aircraft weaponry of all types and sensors.
In the long term, the Ukrainian forces need more fighter jets.
“The Ukrainian Air Force fighter force needs modern Western fighters and missiles to sustainably counter the [Russian air force]. Russian pilots have been cautious throughout the war, so even a small number of Western fighters could have a major deterrent effect,” RUSI states in the report.
But any fighter jet provided to Ukraine must have the capability the operate from dispersed airfields, including highways, and be easy to maintain. Reports indicate that the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen is a good choice.
Feature Image: Ukrainian pilots (Ukrainian Air Force)
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