It has been 377 days since the Russian invasion began. On Tuesday, Bakhmut remains at the center of the war.
The hell of Bakhmut
The Ukrainian town in the Donbas in under siege for the last seven months. After tens of thousands of casualties and hundreds of destroyed heavy weapon systems, the Russian forces have entered the northern suburbs of Bakhmut. They have also advanced to the north and south of the town, jeopardizing the Ukrainian lines of communication and supply that lead to the town.
Over the weekend, a Russian strike destroyed a key road on the last paved road leading into the town. Now, the Ukrainians are having to resort to unpaved roads for resupply, but the muddy conditions of the Rasputitsa—the great thaw of the winter snow that comes every spring—is making off-road almost impossible even for tracked vehicles.
The Ukrainian government has stated that it will withdraw its forces from Bakhmut before they are trapped. Judging from the current situation, that might very likely be the next step.
But a Russian victory in Bakhmut could very well prove pyrrhic. For months, the Russian military and Wagner Group mercenaries have dedicated large numbers of troops and resources to capture Bakhmut. As a result, their strategic manpower and ammunition reserves have been depleted to such a degree that any further offensives after Bakhmut might not have the necessary troops and resources.
“The Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut will likely culminate whether Russian forces capture the city or not, and the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in a recent operational update of the war.
In the east, the fighting along the Kreminna-Svatove line continues with little change. The Russian forces have been trying to dislodge the Ukrainians from the suburbs of Kreminna for the better part of a month now.
In the south, the Russian forces continue to work on their fortifications in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russian casualties
Every day, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is providing an update on its claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.
However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of close to 1,700 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 8,300 weapon systems of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.
The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.
In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost way more than 100,000 troops so far in the war. But U.S. officials revised this assessment in February. According to U.S. intelligence, Russia has lost almost 200,000 troops killed or wounded in the conflict so far.
Yet, proper casualty figures are still hard to compute and verify given the fog and friction of war.
As of Tuesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:
- 154,830 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
- 6,714 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
- 5,323 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 3,432 tanks
- 2,456 artillery pieces
- 2,095 tactical unmanned aerial systems
- 873 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
- 489 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
- 302 fighter, attack, and transport jets
- 288 attack and transport helicopters
- 253 anti-aircraft batteries
- 236 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
- 18 boats and cutters
- four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems
On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and along the Kreminna-Svatove line in the east.
The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.
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