Russian attacks against Bakhmut are slowing down

It has been 315 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Wednesday, the Russian assaults against Bakhmut in the Donbas are slowing down after more than six months.

Losing steam

In the Donbas, although the Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations against the towns of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the momentum of the assaults is fading. The Russian offensives peaked in the middle of December, but the Ukrainian defenses held, and Kyiv has now sent adequate reinforcements into the sector to strengthen the frontline. Both sides have suffered heavy losses in the fighting, with the Russian forces losing an average of around 500 men killed every day for the past several weeks.

In the south, the situation remains fairly similar as neither side has the capacity to cross the Dnipro River in force and attack. The Russian forces continue to improve their fortifications in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive on the eastern bank of the river.

In the east, the fighting along highway P66 continues with limited attacks and counterattacks from both sides. The Ukrainian military continues to push for the capture of Kreminna, which will open the way for the liberation of Svatove, a key logistical hub that supplies the Russian forces in the east and the Donbas.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,600 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

T-90 Russian tank destroyed in Ukraine — A destroyed Russian T-90 tank earlier in the war. (File photo)

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Wednesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

108,910 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
6,106 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
4,745 vehicles and fuel tanks
3,038 tanks
2,039 artillery pieces
1,842 tactical unmanned aerial systems
283 fighter, attack, and transport jets
424 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
270 attack and transport helicopters
723 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
215 anti-aircraft batteries
181 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
16 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and Lyman, which is located in the northeast of the Donbas.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature image courtesy of International Defense Desk via Twitter

Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou

Greek Army veteran (National service with 575th Marines Battalion and Army HQ). Johns Hopkins University. You will usually find him on the top of a mountain admiring the view and wondering how he got there.

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