Russia is failing to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive toward Kherson

It has been 175 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south gained traction as the Ukrainian forces continued to degrade the Russian combat capabilities on that front.

The war in the south

The Ukrainian military is taking out the important logistical hubs that run Russian operations in Ukraine. The latest target was a large ammunition and fuel dump in Crimea. This is the second strike against the annexed peninsula in less than 10 days after the Ukrainian military took out several Russian fighter and bomber jets at the Saky Air Base in Crimea.

The Russian military launched offenses around Kherson in an attempt to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive or frustrate its momentum, but both Russian ground assaults in the north and northwest part of the southern front failed.

The situation on the southern front. (ISW)

Meanwhile, the Russian military conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the Donbas, mainly focusing on attacks in the direction of Slovyansk (middle in the Donbas), Siversk (northeast in the Donbas), Bakhmut (south in the Donbas), and Avdiivka (southwest in the Donbas).

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of almost 950 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,100 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far. Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

A destroyed Russian Mi-35 helicopter in Ukraine. (ArmyInform.com.uk via Wikimedia Commons)

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Wednesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

44,100 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
4,162 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
3,054 vehicles and fuel tanks
1,886 tanks
993 artillery pieces
792 tactical unmanned aerial systems
233 fighter, attack, and transport jets
263 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
196 attack and transport helicopters
190 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
136 anti-aircraft batteries
93 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
15 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after nearly six months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both of these factors are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.

Ukrainian soldiers observe a Russian tank during the Battle of Mariupol. (File photo)

For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.

Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.

Then, the concentration of casualties once more shifted back to the Donbas, and especially in and around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the two urban centers the Russians managed to capture lately.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest casualties in the direction of Donetsk City.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: Ukrainian artillery training. (Armed Forces of Ukraine)

Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou

Greek Army veteran (National service with 575th Marines Battalion and Army HQ). Johns Hopkins University. You will usually find him on the top of a mountain admiring the view and wondering how he got there.

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