It has been 278 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Monday, the fighting continues all across the battlefield.
A tour of the battlefield
In the east, the Ukrainian forces are pushing toward Kreminna, but the Russians are resisting, with the two sides expending thousands of rounds of artillery every day.
In the Donbas, there is fierce fighting around Bakhmut, where the rain and mud have made the battlefield look like World War One. Both sides are using trenches to protect themselves against the elements and incoming fire.
In the south, the Russian military has been fortifying the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensives. After liberating the western part and the capital of Kherson province, the Ukrainian forces are setting up the conditions for crossing the river.
However, the Russian fortifications seem to be prioritizing the defense of main roads as opposed to cross-country land. That might be a problem for the Russians since the Ukrainian forces have been mainly operating cross-country, using roads when and where it makes sense tactically. Thus, the Russian defenses might not prove as effective as the Kremlin thinks.
Russian casualties
Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.
However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,500 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.
The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.
Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.
In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.
In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.
Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.
As of Monday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:
- 87,900 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
- 5,861 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
- 4,416 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 2,908 tanks
- 1,899 artillery pieces
- 1,555 tactical unmanned aerial systems
- 278 fighter, attack, and transport jets
- 395 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
- 261 attack and transport helicopters
- 531 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
- 209 anti-aircraft batteries
- 163 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
- 16 boats and cutters
- four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems
On Monday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, Pavlivka, and Avdiivka, which are all located in the south of the Donbas.
The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.
Feature Image: Soldiers with the Ukrainian army recon the perimeter and establish security Feb. 11, 2016, at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center near Yavoriv, Ukraine. Ukrainian soldiers are conducting a culminating situational training exercise as part of the first rotation of Fearless Guardian II. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. 1st Class Adriana M. Diaz-Brown, 10th Press Camp Headquarters).
“Thus, the Russian defenses might not prove as effective as the Kremlin thinks.”
The Kremlin thinks? Who knew?