Regular Russian army now heading the assault against Bakhmut

It has been 343 days since the Russian invasion began. On Wednesday, the fighting in the Donbas continues in earnest. Despite the pressure the Russian military is exerting on the Ukrainians, no breakthrough is imminent.

Another day in the war

The fight for Bakhmut continues as the Russian military is now in charge of the assault against the Ukrainian town. The infamous Wagner Group private military company has largely been replaced by conventional Russian military forces, according to the latest operational estimate of the Institute for the Study of War. Thus, the Russian campaign against Bakhmut will continue, despite previous signs that the assault had reached its culminating point.

The localized Russian offensive around Pavlivka and Vuhledar in the south of the Donbas continues but hasn’t achieved anything significant.

In the east, the two sides continue to attack and counterattack along the Svatove-Kreminna line. The Russian forces are trying to recapture lost territory around Kreminna, while the Ukrainian military is trying to reach the city so it can capture the key logistical hub of Svatove.

In the south, the situation remains unchanged.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is providing an update on its claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of close to 1,700 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 8,300 weapon systems of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Ukrainian tanks during the war in the Donbas. (File photo)

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost way more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Wednesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

128,420 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
6,382 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
5,061 vehicles and fuel tanks
3,209 tanks
2,207 artillery pieces
1,951 tactical unmanned aerial systems
796 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
458 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
293 fighter, attack, and transport jets
284 attack and transport helicopters
221 anti-aircraft batteries
200 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
18 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and along the Kreminna-Svatove line in the east.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: Russian paratroopers before boarding a transport aircraft for the exercise West-2021, November 2021. (Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)