Pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are starting to give trouble to Moscow

It has been 174 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Tuesday, the Russian military continued with its offensive operations in the Donbas, while the Ukrainian forces pushed in the southern front in the direction of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Offense in the north, defense in the south

The Russian military continued its ground offensive operations against Slovyansk (in the middle of the Donbas), Siversk (in the southeast of the Donbas), and Bakhmut (in the south of the Donbas). However, the Russian forces put the most pressure in the area to the west of Donetsk City, the capital of the Donetsk oblast that has been under pro-Russian control since 2014.

The Russian military keeps struggling with serious force generation issues, and the pro-Russian separatist forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are starting to give trouble to Moscow.

In the Luhansk oblast, the local pro-Russian separatist forces are refusing to fight beyond the borders of their land, further starving the Russian frontline units of manpower.

Meanwhile in the south, the Ukrainian military continues to slowly chip away at the Russian defenses in the direction of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of almost 950 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,100 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far. Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Russian tanks — A Russian armored column in Ukraine in March 2022. (Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Tuesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

43,900 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
4,152 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
3,049 vehicles and fuel tanks
1,880 tanks
989 artillery pieces
790 tactical unmanned aerial systems
233 fighter, attack, and transport jets
263 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
196 attack and transport helicopters
190 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
136 anti-aircraft batteries
92 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
15 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down despite continuous pressure and offensive operations in the Donbas. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after nearly six months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both of these factors are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.

Ukrainian airborne soldiers (Presidency of Ukraine)

For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.

Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.

Then, the concentration of casualties once more shifted back to the Donbas, and especially in and around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the two urban centers the Russians managed to capture lately.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest casualties in the direction of Donetsk City.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: LPR People’s Militia servicemen and military hardware are seen near the city of Severodonetsk in Ukraine. (Photo by Gavriil Grigorov/TASS)

Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou

Greek Army veteran (National service with 575th Marines Battalion and Army HQ). Johns Hopkins University. You will usually find him on the top of a mountain admiring the view and wondering how he got there.

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