Kremlin revises its objectives for the war in Ukraine

It has been 289 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Friday, the fighting in Ukraine continues with the fiercest battles taking place around the town of Bakhmut in the Donbas.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin has once more revised its objectives for the war.

The Russian objectives

Earlier in the week, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke about his country’s goals in Ukraine. Moscow is now looking to fully seize the four partially occupied Ukrainian provinces (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson). Following a series of bogus referenda in September, Russia illegally annexed the four provinces. However, since then, the Ukrainian forces have liberated hundreds of square kilometers of territory, openly disputing the Russian claims.

Moscow began the war with the objective of capturing Kyiv and overthrowing the Ukrainian government. After the Ukrainian victory in the battle for the country’s capital, the Kremlin revised its objectives and aimed at capturing the Donbas, which is comprised of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. Despite capturing some cities and settlements, the Russian forces failed to achieve that goal too. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is getting pushback from within Russia for its performance in Ukraine.

“The Kremlin’s Western-oriented messaging is continuing to anger the pro-war milblogger community that is increasingly accusing the Kremlin of deviating from its original war goals in Ukraine, however,” the Institute for the Study of War stated in its latest operational update of the war.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,500 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

A Ukrainian Air Force ground crewmember inspects a missile attached to a Ukrainian jet. (Ukrainian Air Force)

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Friday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

93,390 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
5,912 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
4,531 vehicles and fuel tanks
2,937 tanks
1,926 artillery pieces
1,603 tactical unmanned aerial systems
281 fighter, attack, and transport jets
395 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
264 attack and transport helicopters
592 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
211 anti-aircraft batteries
164 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
16 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Friday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and Lyman, which is located in the northeast of the Donbas.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin during his speech in September 2022 announcing the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian provinces. (Kremlin)