Battlefield fluctuations in Ukraine and President Zelenksy visits liberated Kherson

It has been 265 days since the Russian invasion began. On Tuesday, the battlefield remained fairly stable as both sides are still trying to make sense of the Russian withdrawal from Kherson.

Battlefield fluctuations

In the east, the Ukrainian forces continue with their counteroffensive operations toward the direction of Kreminna and Svatove. The latter is another key logistical hub, and its capture would enable the Ukrainian forces to hamstring Russian offensive operations not only in the area but in the north of the Donbas too.

The Russian military is heavily reliant on railroad networks for its supply. Thus, the loss of key rail hubs, such as Svatove or Kupyansk, which was liberated by the Ukrainians in September, are hard to replace.

The Russian forces conducted some limited offensive operations in the east but failed to achieve anything significant.

In the south, the Ukrainian forces are still consolidating their positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City. Keeping up with his habit of visiting recently-liberated cities, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky went to Kherson City on Monday.

In the Donbas, the Russian forces continue with their offensive operations against Bakhmut and in the vicinity of Donetsk City. However, the Russian attacks there keep failing.

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,400 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Ukrainian troops in Sloviansk in Donetsk province in 2020. (Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine)

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Tuesday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

82,080 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
5,773 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
4,351 vehicles and fuel tanks
2,861 tanks
1,850 artillery pieces
1,511 tactical unmanned aerial systems
278 fighter, attack, and transport jets
393 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
261 attack and transport helicopters
399 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
208 anti-aircraft batteries
160 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
16 boats and cutters
four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and Kherson province.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: Ukrainian President Zelenksy visits the recently liberated city of Kherson. (Twitter via Tendar)