As winter approaches, the Russian military is digging in

It has been 288 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Thursday, the situation on the ground remains relatively stable. The Ukrainian military continues with its counteroffensive in the east, while the Russian forces are attacking Bakhmut in the Donbas.

A tour of the battlefield

Both in the east and south, the Russian military is digging in for the winter and in anticipation of further Ukrainian counteroffensives. Only in the Donbas is the Russian military maintaining some sort of offensive mindset.

Russian forces have been trying to capture Bakhmut for the better part of five months but have only succeeded in capturing a few settlements in the vicinity of the Ukrainian town. Although strained, the Ukrainian defenses hold fast for the time being. Bakhmut is an important strategic target but certainly not worth the thousands of men and tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces, and other weapon systems that Moscow is expanding of its capture.

In the south, things have been relatively quiet. The Ukrainians continue their long-range interdiction campaign. However, the Russians have adjusted and are keeping their most important logistical functions outside of Ukrainian range, but this, in turn, causes strain on the Russian logistical lines.

Related: Ukraine attacks strategic bomber bases hundreds of miles inside Russia, according to officials

Russian casualties

Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.

However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 1,500 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 5,300 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.

The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.

Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered more than 100,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the war so far.

In the summer, Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, had told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.

Related: The 5 strangest pieces of Russian equipment found in Ukraine

In November, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley shared the U.S. military’s assessment that the Russian military has lost more than 100,000 troops so far in the war.

Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.

As of Thursday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:

• 93,080 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
• 5,911 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
• 4,528 vehicles and fuel tanks
• 2,937 tanks
• 1,925 artillery pieces
• 1,603 tactical unmanned aerial systems
• 281 fighter, attack, and transport jets
• 395 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
• 264 attack and transport helicopters
• 592 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
• 211 anti-aircraft batteries
• 164 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
• 16 boats and cutters
• four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems

On Thursday, Ukrainian forces continued to inflict the heaviest in the direction of Bakhmut, which is located in the south of the Donbas, and Lyman, which is located in the northeast of the Donbas.

The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.

Feature Image: Field engineer in Dublon protection suit holding a shell during the military exercises of Guards Engineer Brigade and Engineer Camouflage Regiment of Russian army, January 2011. (Photo by Grigory Sysoev/Wikimedia Commons via RIA Novosti)

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