It has been 163 days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. On Friday, the winds are changing in Ukraine as the hosts are now on the offensive while the Russian military is scrambling to defend.
All about Kherson
The Russian military seems to have abandoned any major offensive operations in the direction of Slovyansk and Siversk in the Donbas. It is now transferring an increasingly larger number of troops and materiel from eastern to southern Ukraine to defend against the incoming Ukrainian counteroffensive.
This is the first time the Ukrainian military is able to truly dictate the course of the war because the Russian forces are responding to Kyiv’s movements. But this is also the first true test of the Ukrainian offensive capabilities. Defense is a different beast than offense, and if Kyiv seeks to regain the lost territories, it will have to prove a robust offensive capability.
“Russian forces have previously withdrawn from or suspended offensive operations on Kharkiv City and the southern axis to prioritize capturing Luhansk Oblast, but they did so on their own initiative based on the changing priorities of their commanders,” the Institute for the Study of War stated.
“Russian forces in this case appear to be responding to the Ukrainian counteroffensive threat in Kherson Oblast rather than deliberately choosing objectives on which to concentrate their efforts,” the Institute for the Study of War added.
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Every day, the Ukrainian military is providing an update on their claimed Russian casualties. These numbers are official figures and haven’t been separately verified.
However, Western intelligence assessments and independent reporting corroborate, to a certain extent, the Ukrainian casualty claims. For example, the Oryx open-source intelligence research page has visually verified the destruction or capture of more than 900 Russian tanks (which amounts to more tanks than the combined armor capabilities of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and more than 4,700 military vehicles of all types; this assessment has been confirmed by the British Ministry of Defense.
The same independent verification exists for most of the other Ukrainian claims. Recently, the Pentagon acknowledged that the Russian military has lost thousands of combat vehicles of all types, including over 1,000 tanks, and dozens of fighter jets and helicopters.
Furthermore, more recent reports that are citing Western intelligence officials indicate that the Russian military has suffered up to 20,000 fatalities in the war so far. Sir Tony Radakin, the British Chief of the Defence Staff, recently told the BBC that the West understands that more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the conflict thus far. If we were to take the Ukrainian figures as accurate, the number mentioned by Sir Radakin is on the low side of the spectrum.
Yet, it is very hard to verify the actual numbers unless one is on the ground. However, after adjusting for the fog of war and other factors, the Western official numbers are fairly close to the Ukrainian claims.
As of Friday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is claiming the following Russian casualties:
- 41,650 Russian troops killed (approximately three times that number wounded and captured)
- 4,032 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles destroyed
- 2,964 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 1,792 tanks
- 950 artillery pieces
- 742 tactical unmanned aerial systems
- 223 fighter, attack, and transport jets
- 260 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS)
- 191 attack and transport helicopters
- 180 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses
- 123 anti-aircraft batteries
- 83 special equipment platforms, such as bridging equipment
- 15 boats and cutters
- four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems
Over the past weeks, the rate of Russian casualties has slowed down despite continuous pressure and offensive operations. This suggests two things: First, the Russian commanders are taking a more cautious approach to their offensive operations, fully utilizing combined arms warfare to achieve their goals; and second, the Ukrainian forces are running out of combat power or ammunition — and this is expected after nearly five months of war against the Russian military. Recent reports from the ground suggest that both of these factors are true, and that the fatigue of warfare is catching up on both sides.
For most of May, the Russian military suffered the greatest casualties around the Slovyansk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia areas, reflecting the heavy fighting that was going on there. As the days and weeks went on, most of the heavy fighting shifted toward the direction of Bakhmut, southeast of Slovyansk, around Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Lysychansk.
Then the location of the heaviest casualties shifted again westwards toward the area of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — where one of Europe’s largest nuclear plants is located — as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in and around the area.
Then, the concentration of casualties once more shifted back to the Donbas, and especially in and around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, the two urban centers the Russians managed to capture lately.
On Friday, Ukrainian forces inflicted the heaviest casualties in the direction of Bakhmut and Donetsk.
The stated goal of the Russian military for the renewed offensive in the east is to establish full control over the pro-Russian breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and create and maintain a land corridor between these territories and the occupied Crimea.
Yes, it looks like we’re taking over the initiative. Very slowly. The artillery is still scarce.